Market interpretations are divided over whether bitcoin has already passed the low of the current cycle.

Cointelegraph reported on Monday that bitcoin is moving sideways around $63,500 and is down nearly 50% from a peak above $126,000 hit in October 2025.

The key issue is whether the downturn has already entered a finishing phase or whether more correction remains. Bulls cite spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds and corporate treasury demand, and an improvement in long-term fund flows. They see a chance the market formed a bottom last month. Those urging caution judged it too early to call it a confirmed bottom even if it may be the tail end of a bear market.

Russell Thompson (러셀 톰슨), chief investment officer at Hilbert Capital, said bitcoin is still in a down cycle. He said a meaningful bottom is likely only after another drop below the recent low. He also judged that the current market structure is being driven more by macroeconomic and liquidity conditions than by crypto-specific indicators.

Thompson pointed to the possibility that bitcoin first retests the $56,000 to $52,000 zone and, depending on conditions, could slide to around $40,000 to $45,000. He cited around October 2026 as a possible timing for a low, but added that a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut or passage of the Clarity bill could bring the timing forward. He assessed bitcoin as moving more like a "high-beta macro asset" than a "detached crypto asset."

The view that bitcoin has become more linked to traditional financial markets was also raised by other institutions. Citibank cut its 12-month bitcoin target price earlier this month to $82,000 from $112,000. It cited that bitcoin is reacting more sensitively to risk assets and macro liquidity, strengthening correlation rather than reducing volatility.

André Dragosch (안드레 드라고슈), head of European research at Bitwise, struck a more positive but still cautious tone. He defined the current phase as the "late stage of a bear market" and said several indicators point to a depletion of downside momentum. He also saw market sentiment deteriorating to levels seen just after the 2022 FTX collapse as a sign that selling fatigue has increased.

Dragosch also drew a line at declaring a confirmed bottom. "I don't think we've seen the final bottom yet," he said. "But it's very likely we are very close." He added that it is difficult to identify a cycle bottom reliably with a single indicator. He pointed to growth in off-exchange style trading as ETF and institutional participation expands, and said some cycle indicators that worked in the past have lost explanatory power.

Dean Chen (딘 첸), an analyst at the Bitunix exchange, interpreted the decline from a different angle. He said bitcoin remains in a downturn, but prices are now determined more by competition for global liquidity than by the internal structure of crypto markets. He said a structural funding base formed after approval of spot bitcoin ETFs is supporting valuations, but excess liquidity is competing with other investment narratives such as artificial intelligence and the stock market.

"The bigger challenge is not bitcoin itself but the competition for global liquidity," Chen said, adding that funds are continuing to move to AI infrastructure, stocks and high-growth assets. "The question of when bitcoin bottoms could itself be wrong," he said. "What matters more is when crypto again becomes the most attractive destination for global risk capital."

That trend also intersects with the growing influence of derivatives markets. Chen said funding rates and open interest are having a bigger impact on short-term volatility than in previous cycles. He forecast that bitcoin may build a structural bottom over a longer period rather than forming a V-shaped bottom with a sharp rebound as in the past.

Galaxy Research also said in a June analysis that traditional cycle signals have not yet been fully reset. As its base scenario, it pointed to the possibility of an additional decline to the $40,000 to $46,000 range depending on liquidity and macro conditions.

Ultimately, the market debate is shifting beyond where bitcoin's bottom is to how the very concept of a bottom should be defined. That is because ETFs, institutional money and macro liquidity have changed bitcoin's price structure, making it difficult to explain the current phase with past four-year cycle analysis alone. As a result, the direction of liquidity and changes in how institutional money is allocated, rather than short-term prices, have remained key variables shaping bitcoin's next moves.