Bitcoin recovered $61,000. Money moved into bitcoin and gold after weak U.S. jobs data led to a view that the likelihood of a near-term Federal Reserve rate hike had fallen.

On July 3, Yahoo Finance reported that U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose by 57,000 in June, far below the forecast of 113,000. Employment figures for April and May were also revised down by a combined 74,000. Nasdaq 100 futures gave back gains from the past 3 sessions, and bitcoin moved away from the low of $57,750 hit the previous day.

CME FedWatch showed the probability of a September rate hike fell to 54 percent from 64 percent a day earlier. West Texas Intermediate held steady below $70. Qatar’s foreign ministry said there had been “positive progress” in talks the previous day between U.S. and Iranian delegations, pushing oil prices lower. Stable oil prices are cited as a factor that broadens room for additional stimulus measures.

The Fed’s total assets are flat at $6.73 trillion. The Fed has authority to buy $40 billion a month in short-term Treasuries and bonds, raising expectations that weak employment and easing inflation pressures could be a catalyst for expanding liquidity supply.

On the same day, AI-related shares weakened, led by semiconductor stocks. SanDisk, Seagate, Western Digital and Applied Materials shares fell more than 9 percent intraday. Bitcoin, meanwhile, has shown signs of seller exhaustion since running into resistance at $82,500 about 2 months ago.

CryptoQuant analyst gaah_im said bitcoin’s realized profit-and-loss ratio fell to its lowest level since 2022. Pointing to a shift to negative in the ratio of supply in net profit, he said, “Historically, this indicator has predicted cycle bottoms with extreme precision.”

Some analysis also says part of bitcoin’s weakness stemmed from disappointment over Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy. Despite solid indicators including 8 percent net leverage and an enterprise value of $56.8 billion, investors were dissatisfied as accelerated issuance of MSTR shares diluted holdings while the company raised funds to repay debt and finance preferred-share dividends.

If weakness in the AI sector accelerates, that money could flow into gold and bitcoin, making a quick recovery to $70,000 possible, the article said.