Accumulation activity is spreading again in the bitcoin market, but on-chain analysis says it is still too early to confirm a bottom.

On July 2 local time, blockchain outlet CoinPost reported that Glassnode said in its weekly report that after bitcoin fell below $60,000, long-term holders and patient buying began absorbing supply, but broader market conviction remains limited.

The key is that the buyer base is broadening. Glassnode said bitcoin's accumulation trend score rose sharply over the past month, and many wallet groups that had been on the selling side shifted back to net buying. That suggests the recent correction has begun drawing in new demand.

The strongest accumulation is currently seen among small holders with less than 1 BTC and holders in the 100 to 1,000 BTC range. Large holders with 1,000 to 10,000 BTC also shifted to net buying, though not as strongly as at the start of the cycle. Glassnode said these moves across multiple groups could be an early sign of recovering confidence after the price decline. It noted that in the past, periods of broad-based accumulation regardless of wallet size often formed a foundation for a long-term recovery. It added that this pattern would need continued buying going forward to be supported.

Internal market strains persist. Based on the latest data, about 10.83 million BTC were in unrealised losses, exceeding 9.22 million BTC in unrealised gains. Periods with more loss-held supply have often overlapped with past episodes of capitulation. Glassnode said investor profitability is deteriorating sharply and bitcoin is entering a phase of moving into the hands of investors with stronger conviction.

Institutional flows remain defensive. Outflows are accelerating from U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs. That suggests institutional investors are reducing holding risk rather than actively buying the dip during the recent decline. While spot accumulation is increasing among retail investors and long-term holders, funds are leaving ETFs, creating diverging trends. As a result, whether ETF inflows stabilise has emerged as an important variable for confirming a broader recovery in confidence.

The futures market also makes it hard to pin down a direction. On Hyperliquid, a perpetual futures market, leveraged long positions are building up. Glassnode described this as a double-edged sword that could fuel a rebound while also posing liquidation risk. Net long exposure kept rising even as bitcoin showed weakness. If buying overwhelms selling, large long positions could drive a sharp rebound, but if support breaks, they could turn into additional downward pressure.

Options market indicators also do not yet point to a full-blown fear phase. Glassnode said bitcoin's implied volatility index, which reflects expected volatility over the next 30 days, has not reached the level of fear seen in past bottom zones.

Overall, the market is at a point where accumulation signals and downside risks coexist. Long-term holders and some investor groups are absorbing supply, but expanding loss-held supply, ETF outflows and the buildup of leveraged longs are continuing at the same time. Glassnode said overall there are signs bitcoin is shifting into an accumulation phase, but there is still no confirmation. It added that the possibility remains that the price could suffer another sharp drop before a sustained uptrend forms.