Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has climbed to a record high, raising expectations that this market cycle’s bottom could form sooner than expected.

On June 30, blockchain media outlet Cointelegraph reported that Swan Bitcoin CEO Cory Klippsten (코리 클립스틴) said this based on the fact that Bitcoin supply locked in long-term holder addresses has reached an all-time high.

Klippsten said, "BTC stored in long-term holder addresses is at an all-time high," adding, "Such periods have historically marked cycle bottoms." Glassnode tallied long-term holder balances at 14.7 million BTC on June 25, and he argued the figure signals continued conviction among experienced investors.

The market views long-term holder indicators as one of the key signals for judging Bitcoin sentiment over the medium to long term. Under CoinGlass standards, long-term holders are addresses that have not moved Bitcoin for at least 155 days. The larger this group’s holdings, the more it is interpreted as reluctance to sell at current price levels.

Long-term holders in fact began accumulating Bitcoin again from late 2025. That came about 2 months after liquidations totaling $19.0 billion in early October 2025. CoinGlass data show long-term holdings at 16.65 million BTC, up 14 percent from 14.6 million BTC on Nov. 26, 2025.

Views differ on the timing of the bottom. Zhang Zhuoer (장줘얼), founder of Rabbit Mining Pool, expected Bitcoin’s bottom to form between October and December 2026. He pointed out that Strategy’s mNAV has already fallen to 0.72, near the 0.7 low recorded on May 11, 2022. He then suggested Bitcoin’s bottom could appear about 6 months after Strategy’s mNAV bottom, with the cycle bottom potentially around $42,000 to $44,000.

mNAV is an indicator that compares a company’s market capitalisation with the intrinsic value of its holdings. Both forecasts shared the view that a lower range than the current price could open up, but they differed on when the bottom would be reached.

Regulatory variables also remain. Grayscale judged that uncertainty over the handling of the U.S. digital asset market structure bill, the "Clarity Act", could affect Bitcoin price moves. Jack Pandl (잭 판들), Grayscale’s head of research, also noted in a June 27 report that if the Clarity Act does not pass within this year, Strategy and other treasury-holding companies could move to further deleverage, and Bitcoin could fall further as a result.

Galaxy Digital also lowered to 50 percent on June 29 the chance that the Clarity Act will be enacted within 2026. It cited growing time constraints for the U.S. Senate to process a crypto market structure bill before its August recess. The bill is set for a House committee hearing on July 17. The goal is to establish the first digital asset regulatory framework in the United States, but opposition from the banking sector continues over the issue of allowing interest on stablecoin holdings.

In the end, the market is watching two signals together: expanding accumulation by long-term holders and regulatory uncertainty. Long-term holding indicators show investor conviction remains intact, but U.S. legislative delays and the possibility of deleveraging by treasury-holding companies remain short-term downside risks for prices.

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