Bitcoin ended weekly trading below its 200-week moving average for the first time since June 2022.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain outlet, reported on June 30 that bitcoin’s latest weekly close was $59,486, below the 200-week moving average of $62,443.

Bitcoin has since remained weak below $60,000. The current price is about 55 percent below the all-time high of $126,000 set on Oct. 6, 2025. The 200-week moving average is a long-term indicator that reflects about 1,400 days of price moves, and the market views it as one of the lines separating bull and bear markets. Attention is focused on whether the break will lead to confirmation of a short-term bottom or mark the start of further declines.

Past cases are mixed. In the second week of June 2022, bitcoin also closed at $20,552, falling below the then 200-week moving average of $22,300. The price later slid further to $16,500 in November that year.

At that time, bitcoin fell to about 0.68 times the 200-week moving average and was down 77 percent from the prior peak of about $69,000. It stayed below the 200-week moving average for 16 months and did not recover it until October 2023. If key support levels break now, the possibility has been raised that a similar path could be repeated.

The level to watch first is around $54,000, the realised price. If the 2022 pattern repeats and bitcoin again slips to about 0.68 times the 200-week moving average, a bottom could form around $41,000 to $42,000.

Not all past cases led to additional sharp falls. Bitcoin has dropped below the 200-week moving average only 4 times: in 2015, in 2018 to 2019, in the March 2020 COVID-19 selloff, and in June 2022. In 2015, 2018 to 2019 and March 2020, the break occurred near a market bottom and a new record high was set within about 12 to 24 months. Only 2022 saw larger additional losses after the break.

Michael Saylor, who leads Strategy, is still maintaining a bullish view. He argued that the cycle low for bitcoin could be around $60,000. He also said funds are not leaving the bitcoin market but shifting to other areas such as artificial intelligence, and he viewed about $400 billion as having moved to AI infrastructure.

Strategy currently holds 843,706 BTC. Its average purchase price is about $75,000, so its holdings are in an unrealised loss. That point should be considered when interpreting Saylor’s optimism.

Some technical indicators also show defensive signals. Bitcoin recently found support above $57,802, a level that overlaps with the 61.8 percent retracement of the rise from the November 2022 low to the October 2025 high. The market views this level as a turning zone where buying interest emerges.

If bitcoin regains a weekly close above the $61,000 to $62,500 range, a rebound could follow a fear phase, similar to 2015, 2018 and 2020. If it remains below the 200-week moving average, the chances rise of a longer correction like in 2022. Ultimately, ETF fund flows, moves in the options market and whether $54,000 holds are expected to be the key dividing line.