[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis says the bitcoin market has not yet confirmed a bottom.

On June 30 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that 3 major on-chain indicators and the halving schedule show this correction is still short of the levels seen at past cycle lows.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $58,500. That is about 55 percent below its record high set in October 2025. Debate continues over whether a bottom has formed, but on-chain data has yet to confirm a bottom signal.

The first indicator cited was net unrealised profit/loss (NUPL). It compares market capitalisation with realised value to show whether bitcoin holders are, on average, in profit or loss. The reading has fallen to 0.11, entering the “hope and fear” zone, but it has not yet moved into the negative “capitulation” zone seen in the depths of the 2018 and 2022 bear markets.

Long-term holder NUPL showed a similar trend. The indicator fell to about 0.19 in early June 2026, but it has not dropped below 0 at any point in this cycle. In November 2022, the same indicator fell to about -0.24, confirming long-term holders were generally in losses.

The second indicator was the MVRV Z-score. It shows how far bitcoin’s market value has diverged from its realised value. The reading has declined to 0.22. That suggests bitcoin is trading near fair value, but not in the deep undervaluation zone seen at past bottoms. In November 2022, when bitcoin hit a $15,000 bottom, the MVRV Z-score was -0.286. During the March 2020 COVID-19 shock, it was -0.20 at a low of about $5,000.

The third indicator was the Puell Multiple, which tracks miner profitability. It fell to 0.51 on June 3, but it did not drop below 0.5, which has historically been seen as a miner capitulation signal. All 3 indicators fell during this correction, but they have not reached the extreme levels that confirmed past market bottoms, the analysis noted.

On the time axis, the halving cycle points to a similar conclusion. The most recent halving was in April 2024. Looking at the previous 3 cycles, bitcoin formed a bull-market peak about 12 to 18 months after a halving and a bear-market low about 24 to 28 months after the same halving.

This cycle followed that path. Bitcoin recorded a peak in October 2025, about 18 months after the April 2024 halving. Applying the “12 to 15 months after the peak” pattern seen in the 2018 and 2022 bear markets yields a calculation that this low is likely to come between October 2026 and January 2027. Within that range, the fourth quarter of 2026 was presented as the most likely period.

Similar timeline-based analyses have also emerged in the market. Research by CryptoQuant and Glassnode, as well as analysis by Benjamin Cowen and PlanB, also cited the fourth quarter of 2026 as a likely period for a bitcoin low. They also mentioned precedents in which major lows formed late in the year, such as about $3,200 in December 2018 and about $15,500 in November 2022.

That has led to views that the bottom in this cycle may be not weeks away but still about 4 to 6 months out. Past drawdowns were also cited as a basis for that view. Bitcoin fell about 94 percent in the 2011 to 2012 bear market, 87 percent in 2013 to 2015, 84 percent in 2017 to 2018 and 77 percent in 2021 to 2022. If this long-term pattern continues, the decline in this cycle could be about 60 to 70 percent. Based on a peak of $126,000, the low range is calculated to be from the upper $30,000s to the low $50,000s.

With both on-chain indicators and the halving schedule not yet providing a final bottom-confirmation signal, further changes in bitcoin prices and indicators for miners and long-term holders in the coming months are expected to be key points to watch.