Bitcoin is threatening the $60,000 support level ahead of the end of June and the second quarter of 2026.

Cointelegraph reported on Sunday that the market is focused on bullish relative strength index (RSI) divergence forming despite price weakness.

Bitcoin closed the week below $59,500, the first time since September 2024. It then rebounded slightly early in the week, but $60,000 is shifting from support to a level closer to resistance. Buying has failed to produce a clear recovery trend.

The market is watching signals on short- and medium-term charts that are raising expectations of a rebound. Gerla (게를라), a bitcoin whale and operator of a trading group, said the 4-hour chart shows bitcoin forming bullish RSI divergence and a possible double bottom. Trader Heisenberg (하이젠버그) also recently compared the 2026 low zone with a prior decline and said oversold RSI divergence overlapped with bottom formation.

The signal has appeared during past major trend reversals. Bitcoin also came with RSI divergence during the late-2022 phase when the bear market ended. Killa (킬라) said bitcoin could reach his fifth pivot zone within days, adding that major direction changes have repeatedly occurred around this point at the start of each month for more than the past 18 months.

The problem is that price action remains weak. CoinGlass data show bitcoin is down nearly 19 percent in June. That is the biggest monthly decline this year and the worst June performance since the 2022 bear market. Market participant Exitpump (엑시트펌프) said key support and resistance levels do not break easily on the first attempt and need repeated tests and time. He forecast that a full-fledged bull market could return if bitcoin recovers $86,000.

Macro factors could also increase price volatility this week. U.S. markets have a four-session week ahead of Independence Day, but will see releases including the manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) and the June nonfarm payrolls report. Research firm The Kobeissi Letter said this week would be short but busy, and cited the end of the second quarter and the start of earnings season as additional market focus.

Stock market moves are also a factor. Mosaic Asset Company said the S&P 500 is entering a seasonally strong month. Bitcoin’s correlation with U.S. stocks has been inconsistent recently, but analyst Dan Crypto Trades (단 크립토 트레이즈) said bitcoin’s position relative to the S&P 500 has returned to levels seen at the time of the yen carry trade shock and the early-June low. A stronger stock market in July has been cited as a potential influence on bitcoin.

From a seasonal perspective, some also expect a July rebound. Rekt Capital said past trends show that when June ends weak, July often rebounds. CoinGlass data also show that since 2013, June and July returns have moved in opposite directions in most cases. There were only three exceptions, and in 2025 both months ended higher.

There are also signals suggesting it is too early to declare a confirmed bottom. Rekt Capital said the recent downtrend could continue for several more months and left open the possibility of new lows during that period. It also presented an analysis that the bear market was 71 percent complete as of June 22.

On-chain indicators point in the same direction. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno (모레노) said, citing the UTXO block profit-and-loss ratio model, that bitcoin is starting to show the first clear signal of a deeper market shakeout. The indicator is currently 5.9, the lowest level since 2022, and also sits in a very low historical range. Moreno called it the first bottom signal of the current bear market, but added that past cases suggest the market may need to absorb additional stress before the downtrend fully ends.

The focus for the bitcoin market this week is whether it can defend $60,000, the month- and quarter-end closing price, and whether bottom signals from RSI and on-chain indicators lead to an actual rebound. A sharp June drop has confirmed bearish conditions, but early July still leaves room for both a technical rebound and the possibility of further lows.