Bitcoin is down about 18.5 percent so far in June, raising the possibility of its worst monthly return since mid-2022. Markets are discussing both the chance of a July rebound and the risk of further declines. Experts see whether support at $60,000 holds as a key variable that will determine next month’s direction.

Cointelegraph reported on June 28 that bitcoin has undergone a sharp correction this month, dampening investor sentiment. It added that some analyses still expect a short-term rebound, citing derivatives markets and historical seasonality data.

A core argument for a rebound is the large buildup of short positions in the futures market. Analyst Plle said an analysis of the Binance BTC/USDT liquidation heatmap shows a sizable short-liquidation zone above the current price.

The most-watched level is around $67,645. About $247.39 million worth of liquidation leverage is concentrated in that area, and cumulative short liquidations were estimated at about $2.26 billion.

That suggests a rise to that level could trigger a short squeeze, in which forced liquidations of short positions lead to a chain of buying. Plle forecast that bitcoin could form a bottom near $60,000 for now and rebound to $75,000 before any further decline appears.

Seasonality is another factor supporting the rebound case. Analyst CGT_Trader, citing Coinglass data, said bitcoin’s average return in July is 7.6 percent, a much stronger pattern than June, which averages minus 1.4 percent.

A similar pattern appeared even during bear-market periods. Bitcoin rose 20.96 percent in July 2018 and 16.8 percent in July 2022. More recently, it gained 2.95 percent in July 2024 and 8.13 percent in July 2025.

Even when looking only at years with U.S. midterm elections, the average July gain was 10.3 percent, the highest of the year. Under the same condition, June’s average return was minus 17 percent. Given bitcoin is trading around $60,000, applying past average returns alone yields calculations suggesting a recovery in July to around $64,500 to $66,100. If a strong rebound similar to 2018 or 2022 is repeated, forecasts also see a possible range of $70,000 to $72,500.

Downside risks remain. Bitcoin is currently trading below the 200-week simple moving average, or SMA, at $62,445 on a weekly basis. Markets are also raising concerns that a similar pattern to the 2022 bear market could repeat, when additional declines followed a break below long-term moving averages.

Short-term technical analysis is also seen as a headwind. Bitcoin was recently assessed as having broken down from a bearish flag pattern. Some forecasts say that if it fails to quickly regain the 200-day simple moving average, another correction could take it down to $55,000 in July.

Markets are ultimately weighing two scenarios. In the upside case, large short liquidations around $67,600 and July’s typically strong seasonality could drive a rebound. Conversely, if bitcoin fails to regain the psychological support at $60,000 and long-term moving averages, it may be hard to rule out a further drop to $55,000.

Market participants see the defense of $60,000 and a break above the short-liquidation zone near $67,600 as key turning points that will determine bitcoin’s July trend.