As bitcoin enters weekend trading around $60,000, the $58,000 level has emerged as a near-term dividing line.

On June 27 (local time), blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that recent declines may be decided by supply and demand flows in the 72 hours after options expiry, determining whether the drop is a temporary plunge from seller exhaustion or leads to acceptance at lower prices.

Direct price pressure increased as U.S. inflation data and crowded positioning overlapped. May core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) inflation rose 3.4 percent from a year earlier, above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target. But the market reacted more strongly to bitcoin options expiry on June 26. More than $10.6 billion of bitcoin options expired, based on Deribit, and about 80 percent of total open interest was out of the money. The maximum pain zone was also formed in the low $70,000s, creating a wide gap with the current price.

In particular, open interest of about $450 million clustered around the $60,000 put strike before expiry. That was why the market hovered near $60,000 throughout the week. Some expect that after options expiry, part of this overhead burden will ease, allowing the market to find a clearer price base.

The decline also saw widespread unwinding of leverage. After bitcoin fell below $60,000, liquidations of about $1 billion occurred in the crypto futures market over 24 hours, with long positions hit hardest. Laisi Zhang (레이시 장), a research analyst at Bitget Wallet, assessed that excessive long positions have already been removed to a large extent and that market structure is more cleaned up than the current price level suggests.

Funds are tilting relatively toward bitcoin and ether rather than across altcoins broadly. Based on CoinGecko real-time data, bitcoin dominance held around 55 percent. By contrast, selling pressure was more concentrated in mid- and small-cap altcoins. Zhang saw the trend as a process in which funds are refocusing on higher-quality assets. He mentioned that this pattern has appeared in the past at times closer to recovery phases.

Flows in spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are also a variable. Over two days on June 24 and 25, spot bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of more than $1.1 billion. Those outflows acted as a repeated selling channel during U.S. trading hours, and redemptions led to an increase in spot supply.

As a result, price levels to check over the weekend are relatively clear. Recent intraday lows were cited at $58,189, and the real-time low at $58,319. That puts $58,000 to $58,300 as the immediate support range. If that range breaks, it could signal that selling is not yet over. If bitcoin holds $58,000, it becomes possible to attempt a break back above $60,000.

The next recovery zone is between $60,600 and $61,000, overlapping with a recent intraday high around $60,621. If bitcoin moves above this range, it could be read as a signal that actual buying interest is joining in, beyond a simple wick rebound. After that, whether it recovers $62,000 is important. The market may interpret a move back above $62,000 as a temporary downside sweep rather than a break below the lower edge of the existing range.

In a bearish scenario, the key is whether bitcoin falls below $58,000 and stays beneath it throughout the weekend. In that case, the recent plunge could be interpreted as acceptance of lower prices rather than a temporary oversold move, and the next support zone is cited in the $53,000 to $54,000 range. The liquidations Zhang referenced would also remain not the end of structural cleanup but a stage ahead of additional deleveraging.

The market's attention ultimately turns to June 29, when ETF trading resumes. If ETF outflows calm after options expiry and volatility also eases, bitcoin could show a stronger recovery than the market currently expects. If redemptions resume and post-expiry positioning tilts back toward shorts, the first week of July may start with a weak structure. July's direction depends less on macro indicators than on how spot flows, on-chain accumulation and position rebalancing unfold in the 72 hours after expiry.