[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Crypto asset manager 21Shares has withdrawn its earlier outlook that bitcoin’s four-year price cycle has ended and presented a new base case that bitcoin will return to around $100,000 by the end of this year. It said the sharp decline after last year’s record high resembles past halving cycles.

According to blockchain media outlet Coinpost on June 25, 21Shares revised its market outlook in a midyear report for the first half of 2026. The company had previously said the traditional halving-led four-year price cycle could end in this cycle, citing expanded institutional inflows, but changed its stance to reflect recent market moves.

21Shares said bitcoin’s slide after hitting a record high of $126,000 in October last year is similar to the large correction seen within 12 to 18 months after a peak in past post-halving periods. It said the four-year cycle remains valid, but put more weight on a return to $100,000 by year-end than on setting a new record high.

It said this correction differs from past bear markets. It put the current drawdown at about 50 percent, more limited than declines of more than 80 percent repeated in earlier cycles. It also said prices have consistently stayed above investors’ average purchase price of about $54,000 and there has been no large-scale sell-off, calling it a sign of market maturity. It also cited a steady rise in the number of wallets holding bitcoin as a positive factor.

It kept a relatively optimistic view on institutional flows. 21Shares said global crypto exchange-traded product (ETP) assets under management have not grown as fast as expected. It had forecast early this year that assets under management would exceed $400 billion by the end of 2026, but now revised that view, saying it would be difficult to achieve. Global crypto ETP assets under management stood at about $140 billion as of May, down about 15 percent from the start of the year.

Even so, it said it is hard to view this as an institutional exit. It said U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $3 billion in net outflows since the start of the year, but total holdings are about 1.25 million BTC, still near record levels. It also cited that the Hyperliquid spot ETF attracted more than $150 million in funds in less than a month after listing, as evidence that traditional finance money continues to flow into digital asset markets.

It also revised its stablecoin market outlook. It had expected circulation to reach $1 trillion by the end of this year, but now presented $400 billion to $600 billion as a realistic target. It said a regulatory foundation has been set through the U.S. GENIUS Act and the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) implementation, but delays in discussions on the U.S. Clarity Act are slowing growth. It added that it viewed continued record highs in stablecoin supply even in a bear market as a positive sign.

By contrast, it said prediction markets are growing faster than expected. As of the end of May, trading volume stood at $57.5 billion, already exceeding half of the annual target, and it said that if the current trend continues, reaching $100 billion in early the fourth quarter could be possible. It also forecast that trading volumes could expand further in the second half ahead of the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA) World Cup and the U.S. midterm elections in November.

21Shares also cited industry restructuring driven by slowing growth of crypto treasury companies, slower growth in decentralised finance (DeFi), consolidation of Ethereum layer-2 networks and an expansion in the real-world asset (RWA) tokenisation market as key factors to watch in the second half.