Prominent Chinese bitcoin miner Jiang Zhuoer (江卓爾) forecast the current bitcoin bear market will bottom around October to December 2026, with prices around $42,000 to $44,000.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Thursday that Jiang posted the view on social media.

He cited Strategy’s mNAV. mNAV is a multiple calculated by dividing the share price by the per-share value of bitcoin holdings. Readings above 1 are interpreted as a signal of overvaluation, while readings below 1 are seen as undervaluation. Strategy’s mNAV has fallen to 0.72, near the 0.7 low recorded on May 11, 2022 as the previous bull market shifted into a bear market.

Jiang said mNAV lows and bitcoin price lows do not occur at the same time. He explained that when mNAV bottomed at 0.7 on May 11, 2022, bitcoin was at $31,017, but bitcoin’s final low came about six months later, at $15,476 on Nov. 21, 2022. That suggested Strategy-related indicators formed a bottom first, followed by an additional decline in bitcoin’s spot price.

Jiang also presented a mathematical model comparing bitcoin’s price path to a ball bouncing off the ground. The model reflects a structure in which volatility declines in stages as market capitalization grows. Under the model’s calculation, bitcoin’s low appears at $44,016 on Oct. 31, 2026, he said. He said the model is more accurate in predicting the time axis than the price itself. He also said that, considering a tendency for mNAV to bottom about six months before bitcoin’s price, he sees the bottom timing as October to December 2026.

Some in the market also say it is too early to confirm a bottom. Crypto market maker Wintermute has recently assessed that the latest rebound is closer to a “relief rally” driven by an improving macro environment, and is difficult to see as a full-fledged trend reversal. Wintermute said moves toward ending the Iran conflict and May’s consumer price index (CPI) coming in within the market’s expected range helped drive the rebound.

Optimistic signals also appear limited in terms of fund flows. Wintermute cited stablecoins, spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and listed firms holding cryptocurrencies as core assets (DAT) as the main inflow channels for the crypto market, but said spot ETFs posted the longest-ever run of outflows and assets under management at related listed companies fell to about $140 billion from a peak of about $220 billion. It judged there are still no clear signs of a shift toward net inflows across all three channels.

Wintermute also warned that a correction phase could continue on the assumption of weaker trading volumes in summer. In an environment of thinner market liquidity, it said the possibility that bitcoin falls into the $50,000 range cannot be ruled out.

Ultimately, the core of this forecast is that Strategy’s valuation indicator is approaching a low zone similar to the previous cycle, and that the actual bitcoin price bottom could form later than that. As a result, the market is increasingly likely to view whether inflows recover into spot ETFs, stablecoins and related listed companies, along with the trend in Strategy’s mNAV, as key variables in judging the next bottom.

《Forecast of bottoming time and price for this bitcoin bear market》 【Important long-term forecast post】 MSTR’s mNAV has fallen to 0.72 【Figure 1, Figure 3】, (mNAV = share price / per-share BTC value ratio, representing U.S. stock market sentiment toward MSTR; above 1 is bubble overvaluation, below 1 is pessimistic undervaluation) Near the last cycle’s low of 0.7 on May 11, 2022 【Figure 2】. Based on market sentiment events such as a major recent de-pegging of STRC, … https://t.co/V5s0Q2S2Wy pic.twitter.com/o9fqE9U80z