With bitcoin plunging and large-scale leveraged liquidations compounding the move, veteran trader Bob Loukas (밥 루카스) diagnosed the current market as a late-stage bear-market shakeout.

On June 25, the blockchain outlet U.Today reported that Loukas said the market itself had not collapsed even as bitcoin slid to the $59,000 range and $1.49 billion worth of margin positions were liquidated.

Loukas viewed the recent selling as a natural final clearing process that appears within a four-year cycle. He pointed out that the direct shock from this decline was concentrated on investors who took long positions using leverage. He said fear around bitcoin and crypto flooding timelines in a bear market is perfectly normal, adding, "Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either."

He said the bigger problem was short-term high-return expectations spread through social media. Loukas said, "What's far more likely dead is the future version of crypto you've been sold on social media."

The market has seen rapid clearing of leveraged positions. Based on CoinGlass data, exchanges automatically liquidated 212,686 bitcoin long positions over the past 24 hours, totalling $1.19 billion. An additional $327.56 million was cleared in the past 4 hours alone, concentrating liquidation pressure in the short term.

Concerns surrounding Strategy were also cited as a backdrop to the decline. Market experts are linking bitcoin weakness, a drop in Strategy's share price, and STRC falling to $75, below its $100 par value. Some also said Michael Saylor's company, which holds 847,363 BTC, may have become a target for short sellers given its heavy debt burden.

In the fallout, Strategy is being assessed as finding it more difficult to raise new capital on the same terms as before. CryptoQuant analysts recommended that Strategy temporarily halt new bitcoin purchases to restore balance in its cash-like assets.

Loukas said that despite these pressures, bitcoin has already entered a period of forming a long-term bottom. He said there have been past cases where a trend reversal appeared after excessive margin positions were cleared. He said the market may need about 3 to 5 more months of additional sideways movement to fully end the bear market. That means it is still too early to expect a near-term price recovery, and the start of a new cycle is likely to be around autumn 2026.

As a result, liquidation pressure and Strategy-related funding burdens are expected to remain short-term factors that increase market volatility. Over the medium to long term, whether a bottom forms after excessive leverage is fully unwound is expected to be the key point that determines the next move.

All the Bitcoin and Crypto FUD flooding the timeline is perfectly normal at this stage of a bear market. Bitcoin isn't dead. Crypto isn't dead either. What's far more likely dead is the future version of crypto you've been sold on social media.