Bitcoin (photo: Shutterstock)

Bitcoin fell as low as $58,700 on June 24, local time. That has increased moves in the options market to brace for a possible drop to $52,000 later this year.

According to blockchain media outlet Cryptopolitan, Bitcoin extended its losses and slipped below $60,000. Traders quickly increased defensive positions to prepare for further downside risk.

The decline pushed Bitcoin to about 52 percent below its all-time high. The $60,000 level had been a key price zone that the market defended throughout this year, but it finally broke. The area has acted as support since February and held in June, but selling pressure returned after a rebound to slightly above $67,000.

Downside caution was more evident in the options market than in the spot market. Options volume for BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, IBIT, neared 1.1 million contracts on the day. That was nearly double the recent 30-day average daily volume.

Trading was heavily skewed toward put options. According to thinkorswim data, traders bought about 275,000 put options, while call option purchases stood at 129,000 contracts.

Options premium flows also leaned bearish. Of total IBIT options premium of $187 million, $144 million came from put options. The most-traded contract was also a put with a $32.50 strike expiring on the 24th. For that contract to move into profit, Bitcoin would need to fall another 4.5 percent from current levels.

There were also signs the market has not priced in a full-scale breakdown. Implied volatility for IBIT shares was 53, suggesting the potential for daily price swings of about 3 percent. For options expiring July 31, the probability of IBIT being below $30.50 by the end of next month was 48 percent, reflecting a possible additional decline of about 10 percent from the current price. The probability of a 10 percent rise was 55 percent, slightly higher.

Unwinding of leveraged positions also accelerated. Data providers tallied liquidations of about $450 million in leveraged long positions during 60 minutes of morning declines. With Bitcoin already below $59,000, the rapid disappearance of large long positions led the market to view $52,000 as a realistic risk zone for 2026.

The correction came as cryptocurrencies failed to follow a rebound in equities. In recent years, Bitcoin has often moved similarly to high-risk technology stocks, but that link appears to have weakened recently. Bitcoin is down 32 percent this year and Solana has fallen 47 percent. Even when equities rose, rebounds in the two assets were limited.

On the flow side, retail money shifts were also mentioned. The analysis said that as small traders move into artificial intelligence-related stocks instead of riding cryptocurrency price swings, the center of funds driving big price moves is shifting from cryptocurrencies to stocks.

Bearish bets also crowded into shares of Strategy, a company that holds Bitcoin. Options trading in Strategy was tallied at 505,000 put contracts and 403,000 call contracts. Traders bought 83,000 put options and sold 72,000 call options. The market viewed that combination as far from risk-seeking.

Strategy currently holds 847,363 bitcoins at an average purchase price of $75,651. When Bitcoin is around $58,800, the position is about $14.3 billion below cost. The stock has also fallen more than 80 percent since a sharp drop in October last year, and its gain since November 2021 has been less than 22 percent. That contrasts with Bitcoin hitting record highs in some periods over the same timeframe.

Some in the market point to $50,000 as the next support level, while others leave room for a move to below $30,000. As a result, Bitcoin's price is expected to depend for the time being on whether it regains $60,000, whether demand for IBIT put options persists, and whether leveraged liquidations subside.

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#Bitcoin #IBIT #BlackRock #iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF #Strategy
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