[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin fell to $59,000, setting a new low for the year, but a long-term price model showed it has entered a zone similar to past major bottoms.

CoinTelegraph said on June 25 that the recent decline was interpreted as a move within a statistical range similar to past deep bear-market lows, rather than a break from bitcoin’s long-term growth path.

The key point is that $58,000 overlaps with past cycle low ranges in the model. Giovanni’s Bitcoin power-law model put the long-term trend price at about $135,000. The recent $58,000 is about 54 percent below the all-time high and 1.22 standard deviations below the long-term trend line. Cycle lows in 2012, 2015, 2019, 2020 and 2022 were in a similar statistical range.

Another indicator sent a similar signal. The Bitcoin power-law quantile fell to 6.2 percent, suggesting the current price is lower than about 94 percent of past observations based on the model. On the chart, it indicates a similar zone to the cycle lows seen in 2015, 2020 and 2023 has appeared again.

Still, the short-term market is also leaving open the possibility of further declines. Derivatives and liquidation data pointed to $55,000 as the next key support, and the $65,000 to $68,000 range as the main area of interest on the upside. In the power-law model, the commonly cited '-1 sigma' support line was shown near $68,000, while a stronger historical bottom was shown near $55,000. Giovanni said the power-law model itself could be invalidated only if bitcoin trades below $17,000 for more than a year.

The sharp drop was driven first by exchange selling pressure rather than the spot market. Aggressive selling on Binance pushed hourly taker sell volume to $2.1 billion, and another $1.9 billion followed in the next hour after the New York market opened. It was the largest hourly selling pressure since early May. In the process, more than $300 million of bitcoin long positions were liquidated, and the price later tried to rebound toward the $60,000 area.

The market’s short-term pivot was also set at $60,000. Trading firm Byzantine General saw the drop to $58,000 as flushing out leveraged longs while prompting new short entries. He said if the daily close rises above $60,000, the case that bitcoin has formed a local bottom for the time being could strengthen. If it closes above $60,000, bullish divergence in the relative strength index, or RSI, that is forming across the 1-hour, 4-hour and daily charts would be maintained.

By contrast, if bitcoin posts a daily close below $60,000, the bearish trend could strengthen further. In that case, the next area of interest is $55,000. That level overlaps with the low of the weekly range in September 2024 and bitcoin’s realised price of about $54,000. Realised price is an indicator that tracks the average purchase price of all coins on-chain, and it has served as a support line at each major bitcoin bear-market bottom since 2014.

Upside liquidity is also sizeable. Near $65,000, more than $4 billion in short liquidations are concentrated. Compared with about $1 billion below $55,000, it is a 4-to-1 ratio. As a result, if a short-term rebound emerges, attention could shift to an internal liquidity zone around $68,000. Ultimately, the market is watching whether bitcoin can recover $60,000 as the key dividing line between bottom-zone signals from long-term models and the short-term futures market’s indication of a possible retest of $55,000.

Here the real stats for the historical "floor". Bitcoin near $58K, in power-law context — the data without the noise. The long-run fit (price ∝ days^5.67, R² 0.96 on 2010–2026 daily data) puts the trend at ~$135K today. $58K is −1.22σ below trend — a factor of ~2.3 — and −54%… pic.twitter.com/9ftJIW73GX