Analysis says Strategy’s aggressive bitcoin buying may no longer be a key force pushing prices higher.

On June 24 local time, blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic reported that CryptoQuant founder Ju Ki-young (주기영) raised the possibility that Strategy’s continued accumulation has become closer to a liquidity-absorption mechanism than a meaningful price catalyst in the current market.

The key basis is a gap between growth in bitcoin’s market capitalisation and growth in realised capitalisation. Realised capitalisation is a metric that totals overall value based on the price when each coin last moved on-chain. Over the past 2 years, the metric rose by about $467 billion, but bitcoin prices continued to move sideways within a broad range.

More recently, the difference between the increase in market capitalisation and the increase in realised capitalisation has turned negative. This means that even when new funds enter the market, an equivalent level of selling volume is pushing back. Ju said newly inflowing demand is being used to transfer ownership from existing holders to new buyers rather than to push prices higher.

In this situation, Strategy’s financial capacity has also come under scrutiny. The company’s cash holdings peaked at about $2.2 billion in early 2026, then fell about 38% to as low as about $870 million due to convertible bond buybacks and additional bitcoin purchases. It later recovered somewhat but remains at about $1.4 billion.

A more notable change is worsening dividend coverage. Monthly dividend coverage plunged from more than 80 months to 14 months. Ju said this does not mean an immediate financial crisis, but that aggressive bitcoin buying is carrying an increasingly large opportunity cost. He said the company maintains a large bitcoin holding, but the buffer of liquid cash compared with mandatory spending is narrowing.

The market structure is also developing differently from past bitcoin cycles, analysis says. Typically, the bitcoin market moved into the next upswing after a major correction cleared out leverage and overheating, but in this cycle it has traded sideways for nearly 2 years without a deep correction. The market is being assessed as remaining in balance, unable to generate either enough strength to start a strong bull run or enough weakness to trigger widespread capitulation.

That is why some argue that Strategy’s additional buying could end up providing exit liquidity to existing holders rather than creating an uptrend. Ju did not say Strategy should abandon bitcoin, but he said it needs to consider a more systematic capital-allocation model than constant ongoing purchases.

The analysis concludes that scarcity alone does not eliminate the importance of purchase timing and balance-sheet management. In this environment, preserving cash capacity could translate into greater buying power when the next accumulation opportunity arrives, and liquidity management could become a more important variable than unconditional accumulation.

"@Strategy's BTC buying here looks more like a liquidity sink than a price catalyst. They should pause Bitcoin purchases, rebuild cash reserves, and adopt a systematic framework for purchase timing. In a low-selling-pressure environment, that demand can move price meaningfully.… https://t.co/77MKgZMrv0 pic.twitter.com/TnkUJD10Eb"