Bitcoin has continued a recent weak trend, but an analysis says its long-term trend based on a four-year cycle remains intact.

Cointelegraph reported on Tuesday that analyst David Eng (데이비드 엥) assessed that bitcoin is trading about 20 percent below a four-year “adoption structure” trendline.

Eng said bitcoin still moves by “two clocks”. He said that based on the 400-day simple moving average, bitcoin shows a cyclical pattern, and over about four years, short-term noise is filtered out and the adoption structure emerges. “Bitcoin repeatedly moves away from this adoption structure and then returns toward it,” he said.

Under his benchmark, the fair price indicated by the current four-year trendline is about $76,400. By that measure, bitcoin is about 20 percent undervalued. A chart he presented also showed bitcoin’s power-law price rising to around $135,000. Based on that trend, Eng said, “Bitcoin is not broken.”

Short-term indicators still weigh toward the view that the bear market phase has not fully ended. The market is also drawing comparisons with past cases suggesting the current downturn could last several more months. Trader and analyst Rekt Capital (렉트 캐피털) estimated that this decline is about 71 percent complete.

Another level drawing attention among market participants is the 50-month exponential moving average. It currently stands at $63,900. Rekt Capital said if June’s monthly close ends around $62,000, a break below the 50-month exponential moving average could be confirmed. “If the June monthly candle closes at $62,000 as it is now, we will confirm a breakdown of the 50-month exponential moving average,” he said. “Even if July turns into a bullish candle, the 50-month line could turn into a new resistance line,” he said.

The core of the analysis is that short-term declines and the long-term structure should be viewed separately. On the 400-day line, it is confirmed that in both the current cycle and the previous cycle, the daily closing price has never fallen below the support line. By contrast, on a four-year basis, the price moves above and below the trendline, repeatedly overheating and correcting depending on where it is in the cycle.

As a result, the bitcoin market has entered a phase of checking both the possibility of an extended bear market in the short term and whether the four-year adoption trend holds in the long term. The outlet said key points to watch will be whether June’s monthly close finishes above the 50-month exponential moving average and how quickly the price narrows its gap with the four-year trendline.