[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] Bitcoin faces a major turning point this week ahead of the release of the United States' May personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index and the expiry of large-scale options worth more than $10 billion.

CryptoSlate, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 23 that bitcoin is trading around $62,500, and the market is focusing on the U.S. PCE index due on June 26 and the settlement of Deribit quarterly bitcoin options scheduled for June 27 as the biggest variables.

The events are expected to have a major market impact because a macroeconomic indicator and a large derivatives expiry coincide. The Deribit quarterly options expiry is seen as the largest this year. The market is wary that if the PCE reading comes in higher than expected, expectations for rate cuts could weaken further and hedging demand tied to options expiry could overlap, increasing bitcoin volatility.

Bitcoin slipped below $60,000 at one point this month and has since stayed in a box range of $62,000 to $67,000. As a result, the market sees the potential for a price shock beyond a simple data release. In late March, bitcoin fell sharply intraday to around $66,200 as the expiry of $14.1 billion in bitcoin options and $2.2 billion in ethereum options coincided with a surge in oil prices and rising government bond yields.

In the background is U.S. inflation that remains at high levels. The U.S. April PCE price index rose 3.8 percent from a year earlier, and core PCE came in at 3.3 percent. The Federal Reserve kept its benchmark rate unchanged at 3.50 to 3.75 percent at its June meeting while stepping back from an easing stance. It also raised its year-end PCE forecast to 3.6 percent from 2.7 percent, reflecting inflation concerns.

The market sees that if this PCE comes in higher than expected, expectations for Fed rate cuts could retreat further, and continued strength in real rates and the dollar could weigh on non-interest-bearing assets such as bitcoin.

Institutional flows are also not supportive. Spot bitcoin ETFs posted net outflows for 13 straight trading sessions from late May to early June, with a total of $4.4 billion leaving. Outflows continued after that, and cumulative net outflows reached about $2.27 billion through June 18, according to Farside data. A large share of the funds appeared to have left BlackRock's IBIT.

The options market structure is also heightening investor caution. The settlement size for the Deribit quarterly options is the largest this year. About 80 percent of total open interest has reportedly moved into out-of-the-money status due to recent price declines.

Deribit data show the options market's max pain price is around $74,000, about 15 percent above the current spot price. On the downside, $60,000 put options are seen as a key support zone, while on the upside $80,000 call options could act as strong resistance, the report said. The put-call ratio is around 0.87.

Another variable market participants are watching is dealers' hedge trading. Options market makers hedge in spot and futures markets to reduce risk from opposite positions, and that process can pin prices at certain levels or amplify moves in the other direction. If the PCE reading is higher than expected, bitcoin could test an area with concentrated $60,000 put options, triggering additional selling pressure, analysts say.

If the inflation data come in lower than expected, a relief rally is possible, but the max pain price of $74,000 and an overhang of $80,000 call options could limit the initial upside, the report said.

Still, some also say the current perpetual futures funding rate remains slightly positive, suggesting excessive leverage has not accumulated. The market sees macroeconomic indicators setting direction, options expiry amplifying or fixing price moves, and low weekend liquidity potentially further increasing volatility.

As a result, whether bitcoin can hold the $60,000 support level this week is expected to be a key turning point that determines the short-term trend going forward.