Ripple's XRP held in escrow could be depleted between 2035 and 2036 if its current operating method remains unchanged, an estimate has shown.

On June 11 local time, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that David Schwartz (데이비드 슈워츠), Ripple's former chief technology officer and honorary CTO, responded that way to a recent community question about when the XRP escrow could run out.

According to on-chain data platform XRPScan, Ripple currently holds about 32.9 billion XRP in escrow accounts. Under this structure, 1 billion XRP is released each month. Ripple does not use the entire amount in the market and has typically re-escrowed 700 million to 800 million XRP while using only 200 million to 300 million XRP.

If this pattern continues, the remaining XRP in escrow could theoretically last about 9.8 more years. Based on that calculation, the community raised a view that Ripple's XRP escrow could be depleted around 2035 and asked Schwartz to confirm it.

Schwartz drew a line at pinning down a specific time. He said, "It's hard to predict because you have to make assumptions about how much XRP Ripple uses and how much gets put back into subsequent escrow months." He explained that the depletion rate could change if Ripple's business needs, market conditions and how XRP is used change.

He also rejected a simple comparison with bitcoin. The community suggested the escrow depletion could be viewed as an event ending a long distribution, like bitcoin's final mining reward, but Schwartz noted that bitcoin's mining rewards do not end suddenly and instead decline gradually over time. While the point at which they reach zero could be far in the future, their economic importance could weaken much earlier.

He said the challenges facing the two networks are also different. For bitcoin, block rewards support network security if transaction fees alone cannot provide sufficient incentives for mining. But if block rewards become too small, some miners may decide they cannot bear electricity costs, stop mining and wait until fees rise as transactions increase.

He added that such a structure could lead to an imbalance in mining activity. He mentioned bitcoin could introduce structural changes to prevent that outcome, but it is also possible that transaction fees rise enough to keep attracting miners.

XRP is different. Ripple secures XRP for its activities each month through escrow releases. Schwartz said the monthly releases are a token access channel that supports Ripple's various activities. He added that Ripple could continue its role after the escrow releases end, but its operating method could change once it no longer receives XRP through monthly releases.

As a result, market attention is expected to focus less on when Ripple's escrow balance reaches zero than on how much of the XRP released each month Ripple actually uses and how much it locks back up. If the current structure is maintained, the end point can be roughly calculated, but once Ripple's operating strategy changes, that timeline is also expected to change.

It's hard to predict because you have to make assumptions about how much XRP Ripple uses and how much gets put back into subsequent escrow months. Also, BTC's rewards trickle down over time so even though they won't go to zero for a very long time, they may become economically…