[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] Bitcoin has entered a deep undervaluation zone on on-chain indicators, but whether the $60,000 support holds depends on the dollar and U.S. Treasury yield trends, an analysis said.

On June 11 (local time), blockchain outlet CryptoSlate reported that analytics firm Glassnode, in its weekly on-chain report, set conditions for a bitcoin rebound as the dollar index (DXY) falling below 99 or the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield dropping to the 4.2 percent range.

The current market environment is not favorable for a rebound. The dollar index was 100.01, up 2.1 percent over the past 30 days, and the 10-year U.S. yield is holding at 4.53 percent. Glassnode pointed out that a combination of the dollar index above 100 and the 10-year yield above 4.5 percent has historically pressured speculative risk premiums. That means the $60,000 area for bitcoin is sensitive to macro variables.

On-chain indicators show investor stress has already reached a substantial level. Glassnode's AVIV z-score fell to -1.09 before edging back to -1.06, and the AVIV ratio stood at 0.80. Compared with the average purchase price of active investors, it signals bitcoin has entered an extreme discount zone.

Losses among short-term holders were particularly pronounced. Short-term holder MVRV fell to 0.81 before recovering to 0.83, meaning recent buyers are sitting on average losses of 17 to 19 percent. In fact, the share of short-term holders in profit was just 3.3 percent. That is far below the four-year average of 55 percent.

Glassnode also said realized loss flows are nearing “severe capitulation.” The short-term holder SOPR z-score was -1.86, close to -2, which Glassnode presented as the threshold for severe capitulation.

Leverage has largely been unwound during the price adjustment. Bitcoin saw a wave of liquidations in long positions that had built up between $64,000 and $70,000. Glassnode said undervaluation and deleveraging alone do not complete a rebound and that real demand must follow to absorb supply.

The problem is that spot demand has weakened. The Coinbase premium remained in a discounted zone throughout bitcoin’s drop to the $60,000 range. That means U.S. spot demand did not revive during the decline. In prior correction phases, bargain buying centered on Coinbase users flowed in strongly, but this drop has not shown buying of a similar scale.

Corporate buying has also slowed. Corporate treasury accumulation demand that supported bitcoin in April and May recorded inflows of more than $500 million a day, but since early June daily buying has shrunk to well below that level. With both spot demand and corporate buying weakening, conditions have formed for the undervaluation phase to last longer, the analysis said.

The options market is also reflecting greater downside risk. One-week at-the-money implied volatility at one point exceeded 60 percent before falling to around 50 percent, while one-month implied volatility rose to about 45 percent from around 34 percent and six-month climbed to 44 percent from around 40 percent. With implied volatility remaining higher than realized volatility, caution persists over an expansion in future price swings. The one-month 25-delta skew rose to 24 percent from about 11 percent, and the share of put-option buying premium was 32.4 percent over the past seven days and 35.9 percent over the past 24 hours.

The path ahead splits in two. If the dollar index falls below 99 or the 10-year yield drops to the 4.2 percent range, a recovery in the Coinbase premium, a resumption of corporate buying and a normalization in option skew are possible, the analysis said. If dollar strength and rate pressure persist at current levels, more recent buyers may cut losses and the $60,000 area could absorb additional selling amid a demand vacuum.

The report’s core message is that changes in the macro environment come before confirming a bitcoin bottom, rather than on-chain indicators. Glassnode said that even if bitcoin looks cheap on-chain, undervaluation can persist for a prolonged period in an environment where nearby buyers have disappeared from the market.