Bitcoin is showing a price structure similar to the 2022 major bear market during its recent correction phase, an analysis said. Market analysts warned that the current rebound may be no more than a temporary relief rally and that further declines could follow.

Decrypt reported on June 10 that market analyst TARA assessed that Bitcoin is showing a trend similar to the "ABC correction" pattern seen in the 2022 bear market. An ABC correction is a typical correction pattern that occurs during an uptrend. It consists of an initial decline (wave A), a rebound (wave B) and a final decline (wave C).

TARA pointed to the 2022 Bitcoin bear market as showing a typical ABC correction structure. Wave A began at the November 2021 peak of $69,000 and slipped to $33,000 by January 2022. Wave B then rebounded to $48,200 in March 2022, before wave C followed and pushed the price down to about $15,000 in November that year.

He said Bitcoin could now be in a similar phase. He raised the possibility that the recent rebound to $82,800 may have played a role similar to the relief rally that corresponded to wave B in 2022. He added that it is difficult at this stage to be definitive about whether the rebound has ended.

As an additional condition for confirmation, TARA said Bitcoin would need to rebound again to at least around $72,800 and that level would then need to act as a new resistance line. That would require a rise of about 17 percent from the current price of $61,900. If that condition is met, he said, it would increase the likelihood that the current correction is not just a temporary dip but part of a larger down cycle.

Market participants are focusing in particular on the speed of any further declines. TARA cited the 2022 bear market as being characterised by a very fast-moving final wave C. Bitcoin extended its sharp downward trend after the relief rally ended, without a meaningful rebound.

Wave C in 2022 lasted from March to November. In the first 12 weeks, 11 weeks were negative candles, and Bitcoin fell quickly from $48,200 to $17,500 by June 2022.

He warned that if a similar pattern repeats this time, a plunge could unfold without investors having enough time to respond. He did not present a specific downside target price.

Moves after a bottom forms were also cited as an important variable. In 2022, after Bitcoin marked a low near $15,000 in November, it did not immediately shift into an uptrend. A full recovery began only after it moved sideways within a narrow price range for about 9 weeks.

TARA forecast that a similar flow could appear in this cycle. Even if a bottom is formed, he said, there is a possibility of a prolonged sideways phase rather than an immediate rebound.

He maintained an optimistic view for the longer term. After the 2022 low, Bitcoin rose more than eightfold to the 2025 record high of $126,200. TARA said the correction at the time was also a process of reaffirming key support lines within a long-term bull market.

The analysis said that if the current correction follows a structure similar to 2022, it cannot rule out the possibility that a new up cycle could unfold again after further declines and a basing process. The market is watching whether Bitcoin can recover $72,800 and the subsequent price moves as an important turning point for judging the nature of this correction.