An assessment has emerged that bitcoin has moved closer to the bottom of this bear market.
On June 10, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that U.S. investor Anthony Pompliano (앤서니 폼플리아노) said bitcoin's recent decline has been more limited than in past bear markets, raising the possibility that a bottom is forming.
In a CNBC interview, Pompliano said bitcoin slipped at one point to around $59,000 last week, but the drop in this cycle has been milder than in previous bear markets. He said past bitcoin bear markets often saw declines of more than 80 percent from peak levels, but this time the fall was limited to about 50 percent from last year's record high (ATH) of $126,198.
He cited broader institutional participation as a reason for the difference. He said institutional money flowing into the market is absorbing selling pressure more than in the past and cushioning the size of price declines. Pompliano said the current market environment could instead be an opportunity for long-term investors to increase their exposure to bitcoin.
On-chain indicators are also pointing to a similar pattern. Pompliano cited analyst Benjamin Cowen's analysis and said holdings in loss are greater than holdings in profit. He said such conditions have coincided with the late stages of past bear markets.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez (알리 마르티네즈) also offered a similar outlook. He said bitcoin is approaching a market bottom after falling over the past 30 days from about $83,000 to $59,000. He said supply increased as long-term holders moved and sold about 54,000 BTC over the past 2 weeks, and that this supply has acted as significant downward pressure on prices.
Martinez estimated that 10.46 million BTC are currently held at a loss. He said the loss-supply indicator has exceeded 10 million BTC, and that this level has coincided with macro market bottoms in the past. He also pointed to cases in which similar patterns appeared before a major rebound began.
On valuation, attention has turned to the MVRV price band. Martinez said past accumulation phases formed when bitcoin traded in the MVRV 1.0 to 0.8 band. Based on current levels, this range corresponds to roughly $54,000 to $43,000, which he presented as an accumulation zone long-term investors could watch.
Still, the short-term trend has not yet moved out of bearish territory. Bitcoin is moving sideways around $61,000, and the decline over the past week was 6 percent. Daily trading volume, meanwhile, rose 19.42 percent to $37.32 billion.
As a result, the market is watching not only whether prices rebound but also when loss holdings and selling pressure from long-term holders will ease. The next point of interest is whether bitcoin will hold support around $60,000, or undergo a further adjustment into the $54,000 to $43,000 range cited by analysts.
"We are starting to hit a number of metrics that signal we are at the bottom of a bear market," says @APompliano of $BTC’s recent declines. https://t.co/PtdIRbIaFX pic.twitter.com/rajYVcv9M3