Bitcoin has moved closer to a bear-market bottom after briefly sliding below $60,000, an analysis showed. But demand across spot and derivatives markets is shrinking, leaving an insufficient buying base to support a short-term rebound.

According to blockchain outlet Decrypt on Tuesday, on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant presented realised price as a key indicator for bitcoin in a recent report.

CryptoQuant put bitcoin’s realised price at about $53,600. The metric, which corresponds to the average entry price of market participants, is 13 percent below the current trading price of about $61,680. CryptoQuant said bitcoin has formed bottoms around realised price levels or below them in each major bear market in the past. Analysts pointed out: "Historically, bitcoin has formed bottoms at realised price levels, or slightly below them, in each major bear cycle." They added that during the FTX episode in November 2022, "a structural rebound followed after briefly falling below the realised price."

The issue is demand rather than price levels. Bitcoin fell below $60,000 last week for the first time since 2024, but CryptoQuant said the decline is unlikely to lead immediately to a strong rebound. The report said: "Confirming a bear-market bottom or a shift to a bull trend may still require more time," adding that both speculative demand and visible spot demand are shrinking faster in on-chain and derivatives data.

The slowdown in demand was confirmed in several indicators. CryptoQuant said, "Data combining long-position liquidations and a decline in spot bitcoin demand pointed to the most severe single-week demand destruction since January 2022." It also said: "The market structurally has fewer bitcoin buyers than a year ago," and assessed that "the demand base that can sustain a price recovery has weakened."

Fund flows also pointed in the same direction. CryptoQuant cited large outflows from spot bitcoin ETFs as a representative example of demand leaving the market. The report defined this as a "categorical shift." Based on Farside Investors tallies, spot bitcoin ETFs recorded no net inflows except for 1 day after May 14, and cumulative outflows over the period exceeded $4.8 billion. Michael Saylor (마이클 세일러), co-founder and chairman of Strategy, also referred to this trend last week, calling it "capital rotation, not bitcoin impairment."

Still, another assessment said the market has not entered a full capitulation phase. CryptoQuant said holders have not yet reached capitulation levels. It said realised losses must widen further to the point of clearing supply pressure for a sustainable price recovery. The report said only after the embedded overhang of selling is cleared can a durable rebound be possible.

Bitcoin has fallen 6.6 percent over the past week. The current price is about 51 percent below its record high of $126,080. Attention is turning to how much closer bitcoin will move to its realised price, and when ETF flows and spot demand will reverse.