As institutional demand for bitcoin turns into net selling, an analysis says the price could slide into the $30,000 range.

Cointelegraph, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that indicators tracking institutional flows showed sales from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate holdings expanded to about 450 percent of daily new mining supply.

Capriole Investment's institutional buying model tracks supply and demand by reflecting spot ETFs, corporate treasury holdings and miner issuance. In the model, recent net institutional selling totals about 2,000 BTC a day. That means big players are offloading 4 to 5 times more bitcoin than the amount mined each day.

Spot bitcoin ETFs were cited as the biggest burden. ETF flows have recently turned clearly negative, and Glassnode tallies show about $27 billion has flowed out over the past month. That runs counter to the trend from 2024 to 2025, when ETF inflows pushed bitcoin toward record highs.

Strategy, which has served as a backstop on the corporate buying side, has also slowed its buying pace. Strategy bought 89,599 BTC in the first quarter of 2026 and added about 62,300 BTC in the second quarter. In mid-May, it bought 24,869 BTC in a single purchase, lifting total holdings to more than 843,000 BTC. Over that period, bitcoin rebounded about 40 percent from its 2026 low of $59,930.

In early June, Strategy's latest purchase totaled only 1,550 BTC. It followed a sale of 32 BTC to raise funds for preferred-share dividends. The current buying volume is well short of the first-quarter and early second-quarter pace and is not enough to offset the ETF-driven selling pressure of about 2,000 BTC a day estimated by Capriole Investment.

Warnings about a price floor have also followed. Analyst CryptoBullet said that if bitcoin's latest downswing repeats a similar 36 to 39 percent correction seen in the past, the next support zone could be $49,000 to $53,000. That range could act as initial support, but another view said it is hard to call it the final bottom.

Analyst Jele pointed out that every bitcoin bear market fell further below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement before forming a bottom. He explained that in 2014 to 2015 it fell 65 percent below that zone, 59 percent in 2018, and 44 percent in 2022. With the current 0.618 retracement zone near $57,000 to $58,000, calculations show the floor could still be open around $32,000 even if bitcoin repeats only the relatively shallow decline seen in 2022.

A deeper correction scenario was also presented. If the drop matches 2018, $23,000 to $24,000 was mentioned, and a 2015-style decline points to about $20,000. In this trend, the market sees whether ETF outflows ease and whether Strategy returns to large-scale buying as key variables that will determine the next direction.

We are currently witnessing record Institutional selling of Bitcoin. The most selling in history, led by ETFs, nuking over 460% of the daily mined supply, every day. pic.twitter.com/efpUCTUwy6