Ahead of the Bank of Japan's June 16 monetary policy decision, wariness is growing over whether bitcoin prices could again face a steep correction.

According to blockchain outlet Cointelegraph, bitcoin posted corrections of about 18 to 28 percent each time the BOJ raised rates after 2024.

After four past rate hikes, bitcoin's average correction was 22.4 percent. It fell 18 percent after a hike on March 19, 2024, and dropped 18.5 percent after a hike on July 31 that year. It slid about 25 percent after a hike on Jan. 24, 2025, and followed a decision on Dec. 19, 2025 with a 28 percent decline. That is why some worry this meeting could again become a trigger for losses.

Still, it is unclear whether selling of the same magnitude will be repeated this time. All four pullbacks came under different market conditions. The March 2024 decline came after bitcoin broke to record highs amid expectations for spot bitcoin ETFs, and the July 2024 drop coincided with a period when global risk assets broadly wobbled as yen carry trades were unwound. The January and December 2025 declines also followed a joint contraction in 30-day demand for bitcoin spot and futures.

The yen carry trade is cited as a key reason BOJ policy is linked to bitcoin. When funds that borrowed low-interest yen to invest in higher-return assets are partly pulled back during rate hikes, risk assets such as stocks and cryptocurrencies can come under pressure. In fact, during the July 2024 hike, one of the largest carry-trade liquidations in recent years occurred, and selling intensified across global markets, not only in bitcoin.

Some also point to a different environment from that period. The BOJ has already raised its policy rate to 0.75 percent from minus 0.1 percent in March 2024, and Japan's 10-year government bond yield rose over the same period to 2.68 percent from 0.63 percent. That means this meeting is closer to an extension of the existing tightening trend than a new turning point such as ending an ultra-loose policy. Market analyst Cryptic Trades also viewed worries over yen carry-trade unwinding as excessive and said Japan effectively exited a deflation-policy framework in 2024.

In this situation, the center of gravity for short-term price pressure is shifting from the BOJ to on-chain indicators. Crypto analyst MorenoDV pointed to rising inflows on Binance from wallets holding 100 to 1,000 BTC and 1,000 to 10,000 BTC after selling began in early June. As a result, Binance's 30-day total whale inflow climbed to $6.6 billion.

Loss-taking is also already under way. Short-term and long-term whales realized combined losses of more than $2.5 billion during this decline. It is a sign large holders are reducing exposure. Short-term whales, in particular, briefly returned to profit for about 10 days in early May before slipping again, and now have unrealized losses of about $16 billion. Their holdings sit around breakeven levels, meaning any rebound could lead to additional supply.

Ultimately, the BOJ meeting is a macro variable the bitcoin market is watching, but the pressure acting on prices is being seen first in whale holdings moving to exchanges and in the flow of realized losses. The near-term focus is expected to be whether whale inflows and selling intensity rise together around the meeting, rather than the June 16 decision itself.