[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] An analysis said XRP could slide to $0.94 if it follows a June weakness trend that has repeated in years when U.S. midterm elections were held. In a worst-case scenario, it could fall to $0.81.

On June 9 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that crypto analyst Egrag Crypto presented the downside range based on XRP’s average June decline and past price moves.

The key point is that XRP has shown weakness every June in years when U.S. midterm elections took place. Egrag Crypto viewed the current market decline as not yet having reached this month’s low. He said XRP’s average decline in that period was 29.33 percent and argued that applying the pattern as-is could push the price down to around $0.94. He also cited $0.81 as the worst case.

The scenario was raised in early June. XRP showed a rebound toward the end of May but turned weak again in June. XRP rose for three straight sessions on an intraday basis from May 28 to 30, climbing to $1.34, before coming under correction.

Broader market weakness is in the background. Bitcoin plunged on Strategy’s sale of 32 BTC and the impact of U.S. employment data, and XRP also slipped from the $1.30 range to as low as $1.05 at one point. Over the past week, it has fallen about 6 percent, and XRP has still not formed a clear rebound.

Still, Egrag Crypto maintained an optimistic stance on XRP’s long-term outlook. He mentioned a long-term target of as high as $27, but warned that a bearish market could repeat if focusing only on June moves. He cited consistently poor June performance in U.S. midterm election years since 2014.

The periods he highlighted were June 2014, 2018 and 2022. In June 2014, XRP fell 17 percent, and in June 2018 it plunged 39 percent. It also slid 32 percent in June 2022, coinciding with the fallout from the Terra collapse in the prior month. Some chart data suggest the actual decline could differ somewhat from those figures, but the conclusion does not change much. XRP has repeatedly posted weak moves in June in years when U.S. midterm elections were held.

Egrag Crypto assessed that XRP is already down 21 percent this month. Applying the 29.33 percent average decline suggests it could fall to $0.94, and in a worst-case scenario where the June 2026 drop widens to 39 percent, $0.81 is also possible, he argued. Other analysts, Casi and Chart Nerd, also mentioned the possibility of XRP falling to $0.81.

The analysis has drawn attention because it applies a repeating pattern from specific past periods to the current market, rather than focusing on a short-term price forecast. Data showing that XRP was weak in June, especially in U.S. midterm election years, has combined with the recent market decline and is affecting investors’ perception of downside levels.

Still, it is difficult to conclude that past patterns will repeat in the same way this time. XRP’s short-term direction can vary depending on the overall crypto market mood, bitcoin’s price direction, macroeconomic variables and Ripple-related issues. Ultimately, $0.94 and $0.81 are better seen as one of the proposed scenarios rather than as fixed prices.

#XRP - We Know & the #XRPFamily Knows : The June Formula was given at the beginning of the month:#XRP + June + Midterm Years = Historically Bearish Structure Look at the data: ▫️June 2014: -17% ▫️June 2018: -39% ▫️June 2022: -32% ▫️June 2026: So Far -21% ▫️Midterm… https://t.co/0LaUY3Ozaz pic.twitter.com/yuEhcg3xkf