Bitcoin has fallen 50 percent from its all-time high in this cycle, but the market has yet to confirm a bear-market bottom, an analysis said. Still, compared with past cycles, the decline is seen as the shallowest on record.

Decrpyt reported on Monday that bitcoin has slid to about half of its all-time high of $126,080 set in October 2025, but the drop is the smallest compared with previous cycles.

CoinGecko and CryptoQuant data show this bear market’s decline is the lowest in bitcoin’s history. In the 2012 cycle, it plunged more than 90 percent. In the next 2 bear markets, it fell about 82 percent each time. The 2022 bear market also saw a drop of about 74 percent. In this cycle, it is down about 50 percent so far, showing a much smaller correction than in the past.

Markets cite bitcoin’s institutionalisation as a factor behind the change. Jeff Ko (제프 코), chief analyst at CoinEx, said bitcoin has turned into a macro asset now backed by ETFs, deep liquidity and a base of long-term investors. As market structure changes, drawdowns by cycle are gradually shrinking, he said. He also forecast it is unlikely for another plunge of more than 80 percent, as seen in past cycles, to reappear in this cycle.

Another analysis said the holder mix has changed. Martin Lee (마틴 리), head of content and market insights at DWF Labs, said a completely different investor structure has formed as institutions and companies have started adding bitcoin to their balance sheets. He expected bitcoin’s declines to become gradually shallower and volatility to fall, as in the trend seen over the past 2 years.

Still, experts said it is hard to conclude the bear market has ended based only on the current correction. Ko said a 50 percent drop is a meaningful reset for the market, but it is too early to judge that a bottom has been confirmed.

Ko said ETF fund flows, the macroeconomic environment and liquidity conditions will be key variables determining whether the bear market persists. Alex Chepayev (알렉스 체파예프), chief strategy officer at B2PRIME Group, also assessed the market as being in a bearish phase. ETF outflows, macroeconomic pressure and on-chain stress are appearing at the same time, he said, adding that the sharp weakening in recent passive buying is also a concern. He said that since May 18, the only day bitcoin spot ETFs posted net inflows was June 4.

Markets see $60,000 as the first major psychological support level. Some analysts raised the possibility of a retest of $55,000 if it falls further, and forecast it could open the way to the $45,000 zone if stronger selling pressure emerges.

Crypto market maker Wintermute also said in a recent report that the $62,000 support level has already broken. Wintermute said bitcoin moved quickly through the $50,000 to $59,000 zone during the 2024 rise, leaving that area without strong technical support. It added that the future price direction is more likely to be determined by whether funds flow in than by technical factors.

Market sentiment is also tilting quickly toward bearishness. On prediction market Myriad, run by Decrypt parent Dastan, the probability of bitcoin falling to $55,000 as the next step was priced at 72 percent. That is sharply higher than 39 percent recorded on June 1.

A easing of geopolitical tensions and a recovery in ETF demand were cited as conditions for a rebound. Ko forecast that if geopolitical uncertainty eases, the burden of energy prices and risk aversion could also ease, reviving expectations for an accommodative monetary policy by the Federal Reserve. He added that a resumption of ETF inflows could be an important signal of a market bottom forming.

Some altcoins have started to show a different pattern from bitcoin. Lee cited the HYPE token of decentralised trading protocol Hyperliquid, saying some assets are beginning to be valued for their own fundamentals independently of bitcoin. He forecast that differentiation based on each project’s value could become clearer than an era when all cryptocurrencies move at the same time.