OpenAI has submitted a confidential IPO filing (S-1) to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, aiming for a September listing, putting bitcoin on Wall Street’s liquidity test.

On June 9, blockchain media outlet CryptoSlate reported that OpenAI is targeting a valuation of $852 billion to $1 trillion. The move is seen not only as a single-company listing issue, but also as a scene showing a global capital reshuffle centered on artificial intelligence (AI).

Goldman Sachs expects IPO fundraising in the United States in 2026 could reach a record $160 billion. SpaceX is pushing to raise $75 billion at a $1.75 trillion valuation, and Anthropic has entered a confidential listing process after raising $965 billion in late May. The three companies’ pending listing demand is up to 4 times higher than total demand for the U.S. IPO market in 2025.

The market is focusing on the fact that this funding demand overlaps with institutional money that had been flowing into spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Some analysis says funds allocated to large IPOs such as SpaceX and OpenAI may be the same type of money as ETF inflows that lifted bitcoin to $126,000.

Fund flows have also tilted toward AI and semiconductors. Over the past year, AI and semiconductor stocks have risen about 170 percent, while bitcoin has fallen about 40 percent over the same period. On June 3, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 5.9 percent while bitcoin fell about 4 percent in a day, and more than $1.7 billion flowed out of spot bitcoin ETFs in the first week of June alone. That followed outflows of $4.4 billion during a stretch of 13 consecutive trading days of withdrawals.

The most pronounced day for the shift in funds was May 28. BlackRock’s IBIT posted net outflows of about $528 million, the fund’s second-biggest daily outflow on record. Institutional investors were analyzed as having moved money into AI and semiconductor stocks that were setting record highs at the time. If money leaving spot bitcoin ETFs was not simply profit-taking but a portfolio rebalance, the schedule of large IPOs could become a new destination for those funds.

If AI company listings begin in earnest, demand that previously invested in AI indirectly through stocks such as Nvidia, Microsoft (MS) and Alphabet could increasingly move directly into newly listed names. Bitcoin has been included by institutions as a liquid high-beta asset, but some have pointed out that AI-listed stocks with quarterly earnings could take its place.

Still, it is difficult to conclude that this IPO wave will immediately become a negative for bitcoin. For the mega IPOs projected by Goldman Sachs to succeed, risk appetite must be strong enough for the stock market to absorb large supply. If the market can take SpaceX’s $75 billion and OpenAI’s $1 trillion, that in itself suggests investors’ risk appetite is recovering. In such an environment, bitcoin could also benefit from a recovery in risk-on sentiment.

The correlation between bitcoin and U.S. stocks has risen further recently. After institutional events such as approval of spot bitcoin ETFs and Strategy’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100, the correlation coefficient between bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 jumped to 0.87 in 2024. If IPO schedules proceed without disruption and institutional demand is confirmed, the flow of funds into spot bitcoin ETFs could return to net inflows, the article says.

There are clear variables. Recent results for tech stocks have been solid, but OpenAI is also pushing for a listing at a $1 trillion value while operating a structure that consumes $1.22 for every $1 of revenue. If AI IPO valuations are re-rated due to an interest-rate shock, bitcoin could also be hit. Goldman Sachs also cited exposure to software stocks and volatility as risk factors in its $160 billion IPO forecast.

Key questions are whether spot bitcoin ETF funds return to net inflows even as IPO demand expands, whether Nasdaq strength spreads beyond AI leaders to the broader market, and whether bitcoin recovers its 30-day moving average of $75,685 and its 200-day line of $78,840. The U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate stance must also stabilize to prevent high-valuation AI IPO supply from spreading risk aversion across the broader market.

U.S. money market fund (MMF) assets are estimated at about $8 trillion, but SpaceX’s $75 billion fundraising is about 1 percent of that pool. Overall liquidity is large enough to absorb both asset classes at the same time, but bitcoin is down 33 percent so far this year and ETF flows are net outflows on an annual basis.

Prediction market platform Kalshi puts the probability of bitcoin rising above $100,000 before January 2027 at 21 percent. Ultimately, the AI IPO wave could become pressure that pulls funds away from bitcoin, or a catalyst that revives risk appetite.

The rush of IPOs by large companies is a double-edged variable for bitcoin. If Wall Street money moves to newly listed shares, it could weigh on spot bitcoin ETFs, but if risk appetite revives enough to absorb mega IPOs, bitcoin could also benefit. The key going forward depends on whether spot bitcoin ETF funds return to net inflows and whether AI-led risk-on sentiment spreads to the crypto market.