Bitcoin is again facing downward pressure ahead of the release of U.S. inflation data.

On June 9 (local time), Cointelegraph reported that Bitcoin fell about 1.2 percent as Wall Street opened and headed toward lows in the $62,000 range. It is now above $61,700. The market is watching whether it can regain $65,000 as a key near-term pivot for a rebound.

Trader Michaël van de Poppe (미카엘 반 데 포페) pointed to a move above $65,000 as a condition for a shift higher. He said Bitcoin is stuck below $65,000 and sees scope for a strong rise to $72,000 to $74,000 if it breaks above that zone.

He also questioned the validity of the recent macro low after Bitcoin fell to $59,100 last week. He cited what he called relatively irrational selling. He expects it will not take long for the market to form a rebound trend again.

Other market participants, however, focused on signs that the current move is starting to resemble past bear markets. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital (렉트 캐피털) said Bitcoin breaking below both the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA) and a triangular support zone is similar to the declines in 2018 and 2022. He said the break needs to be fully confirmed for the market to enter another phase of accelerated downside.

The divergence between Bitcoin and U.S. stocks also stood out. While Bitcoin fell, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite opened up nearly 1 percent each. Unlike U.S. stocks, which rebounded after Asian markets earlier in the week were shaken by selling in technology shares, Bitcoin kept its own weak trend.

Changes in the macro environment were also cited. International oil prices fell as expectations resurfaced for a peace agreement between the United States and Iran. Al Jazeera and other foreign media reported that U.S. President Donald Trump said in a video campaign event with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham on Monday, "It will be a perfect victory for America." West Texas Intermediate fell below $88 a barrel, dropping to its lowest level since May 29.

Market focus is now shifting to U.S. inflation data. If the data come in stronger than expected, expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts could weaken again, weighing on risk assets broadly. If signs of easing inflation are confirmed, Bitcoin could have more room to try to break back above $65,000.

Still, it is difficult to say at this point that Bitcoin's weakness is moving only in the same direction as broader risk aversion. Bitcoin's relative underperformance as U.S. stocks rebound suggests that supply-demand dynamics within the crypto market and concerns over breaks of technical support levels are being reflected separately in the price.

That has made the near-term focus clearer. On the upside, the key is whether Bitcoin can regain $65,000. On the downside, the key is whether it can defend support at $60,000. Whether the recent dip below the low proves to be only a temporary correction or leads to further downside signals similar to past bear markets will be determined by upcoming price action.

#BTC It has happened Bitcoin rejected from the Macro Triangle base and has lost the 50-Month EMA (purple) as support Now Bitcoin needs to fully confirm this breakdown to enter additional Bearish Acceleration to the downside$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin https://t.co/zgkExUVtQ7 pic.twitter.com/fnuAzP5K2b