An analysis said the cause of the bitcoin downturn is worsening market sentiment, not a structural change.

On June 9 local time, blockchain media outlet CoinPost reported that digital asset manager CoinShares assessed that bitcoin is unlikely to plunge further around $60,000.

CoinShares first pointed to recent fund flows. As of June 5, about $5.8 billion flowed out of all digital asset investment products, including exchange-traded funds, over about four weeks, and the weekly pace of outflows was the fastest in the past year. It said the digital asset market largely held in a narrow range despite the large outflows and that it was not yet a stage to interpret the current downturn as damage to the market's long-term value.

CoinShares cited developments in Iran as a factor directly weighing on market sentiment. It said it became clear that progress in U.S.-Iran peace talks was more difficult than expected, and that the geopolitical uncertainty was weakening appetite for risk assets. CoinShares also noted that the situation in Iran is affecting the outlook for U.S. Federal Reserve policy. Two months ago, the market priced in 1 to 2 rate cuts in 2026, but at present a rate increase of about 0.4 percent is expected, it said.

CoinShares also cited investors shifting funds into artificial intelligence as a factor behind the weakness. It said that as liquidity moves into AI-related assets, other assets such as bitcoin are being relatively sidelined. At the same time, it said it remains to be seen whether AI-related companies can deliver returns commensurate with large capital spending, and also mentioned concerns about a bubble in the sector.

CoinShares also cited Strategy's sale of bitcoin as another variable affecting market sentiment. It said Strategy, the world's largest corporate holder of bitcoin, weighed on investor sentiment by selling 32 bitcoin. Even under a worst-case scenario, it said, the amount was not large enough to shock the broader market compared with long-dormant bitcoin holdings such as those of Satoshi Nakamoto. Strategy later said it bought more bitcoin.

The key is the price trend. CoinShares said bitcoin is unlikely to fall sharply further around $60,000. It said market sentiment has clearly worsened, but bitcoin's long-term value has not been damaged.

It assessed that a full shift to an uptrend is still not easy. It said bitcoin is unlikely to rise strongly until the situation in Iran eases and the Fed's rate outlook changes.

As a result, the short-term focus turns to major central bank meetings. CoinShares presented the European Central Bank and the Fed monetary policy decision meetings as key events. It said that if market expectations for the rate path shift again, it could directly affect bitcoin's price trend.

CoinShares cited tokenisation as an area of future market focus. With stablecoin supply already rising, it said the pace of tokenisation could accelerate if the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, is institutionalised. While viewing the recent weakness as a short-term pullback in sentiment, it is also watching the next phase in which fund flows and regulatory changes intersect.