Arthur Hayes, a BitMEX co-founder who leads cryptocurrency investment firm Maelstrom, said he has liquidated all of his major altcoin holdings and is focusing on bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH). He warned that if the investment frenzy around the artificial intelligence (AI) industry cools in the short term, risk assets broadly could face a correction.

CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Monday that Hayes said in a recently published Substack report titled "Reality Test" that he had sold Hyperliquid (HYPE), Near Protocol (NEAR), Worldcoin (WLD) and Zcash (ZEC). He said his sale of ZEC was influenced by a recently raised issue over a vulnerability related to the Orchard pool.

Hayes said he has recently made major portfolio adjustments. He increased the share of energy-related stocks while selling all AI and semiconductor-related assets. He said his cryptocurrency portfolio has effectively been reshaped around bitcoin and ether.

The key variables he is concerned about are the AI industry's profitability and its funding environment. Hayes assessed that if military tensions between the United States and Iran become prolonged, higher oil prices could weigh on the broader AI industry. If power costs needed to run data centres and AI models rise, corporate profitability could deteriorate and questions could be raised about the sustainability of large-scale capital spending, he said.

Hayes cited three factors that could shake the AI investment boom: rising oil prices, large initial public offerings by SpaceX, Anthropic and OpenAI, and the possibility of anti-AI policies by U.S. President Donald Trump.

He singled out SpaceX's listing as an event that could test market liquidity. He pointed out that SpaceX is preparing an IPO at a valuation of about 100 times revenue, and that in September the number of shares in circulation could increase by as much as fivefold due to the end of a lock-up period. He said if Anthropic and OpenAI also pursue large-scale fundraising around the same time, investment funds could become even more concentrated in the AI sector.

He also mentioned political factors. Hayes raised the possibility that Trump could put forward pledges such as tougher AI taxation or regulations on data centre construction ahead of November midterm elections. "Politics doesn't have to keep its promises, but markets take statements at face value and sell," he said, warning that AI-related stocks could plunge even before policies are implemented. He also said that if rate cuts do not materialise under Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve chair, risk assets broadly could come under pressure.

He also attributed bitcoin's failure to rise as much as expected in recent years to the AI boom. Hayes claimed that the amount of debt issued by AI companies since late 2022 totals about $1.5 trillion, which he said is almost on par with the increase in global liquidity over the same period.

"AI absorbed almost all dollar liquidity," he said, adding that as a result bitcoin did not receive sufficient inflows of funds. He said funds concentrated in AI and semiconductor-related stocks, limiting liquidity that could have flowed into the cryptocurrency market.

Still, he maintained a bullish tilt in his medium- to long-term outlook. Hayes said that if an AI bubble bursts and shakes financial markets broadly, central banks around the world are likely to return to supplying liquidity. He said the resulting increase in liquidity is likely to lead to rises in bitcoin and ether prices.

He said he has therefore chosen a strategy of using derivatives to respond to downside market risks in the short term while maintaining spot holdings of bitcoin and ether.

"If you wake up from a dream and reality hasn't changed, you just took profits before September," Hayes said, adding that he would view the market conservatively for the time being. The market is paying attention to his portfolio shift as another signal of the relationship between the AI investment boom and the cryptocurrency market.