[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee] XRP’s weekly relative strength index (RSI) has fallen below the 30 level, and an unusual oversold signal seen once in the past has resurfaced.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on June 5 (local time) that during the recent sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market, XRP’s weekly RSI fell to 29.6.

The signal is drawing attention because there has effectively been only one instance in XRP’s overall price history in which the weekly RSI fell below 30. Market analyst Evan Klegg (에반 클레그) pointed to the RSI on the weekly chart turning green in a rare occurrence, saying the signal appears only at extreme lows.

The size of the price decline was also large. XRP fell about 13 percent on a weekly basis and has slid to around $1.15. On a monthly basis, it has dropped about 17 percent in 5 days this month, and the decline since the start of the year stands at 39 percent.

Broader market weakness also weighed. Bitcoin fell immediately after Michael Saylor’s Strategy confirmed it sold 32 BTC, and losses later spread to other cryptocurrencies. Saylor mentioned recently that market pressure is related to money moving into the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, but altcoins including XRP are seeing larger corrections.

There are also comparisons with past cases. The first time XRP’s weekly RSI fell to a level similar to the current one was during the 2022 bear market. In June of that year, the RSI dropped to 28.09 and XRP fell to as low as $0.28 in the same week. XRP then rebounded after forming higher lows from that level, and climbed to a high of $0.94 in July 2023 on the back of a favourable ruling related to a lawsuit by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).

Still, it is too early to conclude the signal means this cycle has bottomed. Klegg viewed the decline as a "corrective wave 4" within a larger Elliott wave structure that has continued since July 2023. He assessed that wave 4 is nearing its final stage, and that once wave 5 begins, it could provide the rebound momentum investors had needed.

Klegg’s chart suggests that if wave 5 unfolds, XRP could attempt a new all-time high (ATH) of around $4.4. That also aligns with the Fibonacci 4.472 extension zone. He said the outlook is meaningful only if it is confirmed that the ongoing decline has actually entered a finishing phase.

The key point of the signal is not the sharp price fall itself but that long-term weekly indicators have entered a historically rare zone. Because the same type of signal has appeared only once in the past, the market has turned its attention to whether the decline is a simple correction or a phase of forming a trend bottom.

$XRP weekly. Zoomed all the way out to 2017. Pay close attention to the RSI at the bottom. That green flash only happens when the RSI hits extreme lows. In the entire history of this chart it has only happened twice. The first time was 2022. You know what happened after.… pic.twitter.com/IwsIGbpnIY