XRP has fallen more than 70 percent from its high, and some market participants are revisiting charts from before past sharp rallies and the steep selloff that followed a 2020 U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit. Others counter that market conditions then and now are different.

On June 6, blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that crypto YouTuber BlackSea recently claimed a falling wedge pattern similar to the one seen before a late-2024 surge had appeared on XRP charts.

BlackSea said on X, formerly Twitter, that XRP is forming a falling wedge structure resembling late 2024. The comparison chart cited a prolonged downtrend, lower highs and the potential for a wedge breakout as shared features. XRP rose about sevenfold in two months, climbing from $0.50 in November 2024 to $3.30 in January 2025.

He said XRP could follow a similar path this time. He argued that a structure in which price moved sideways several times within a falling wedge before a strong rise could reappear. He added that past patterns do not guarantee the same outcome. Similar market structure may lead to a similar move, but whether it is actually repeated is a separate question, he said.

XRP's recent short-term trend remains weak. XRP has fallen about 70 percent over the past 10 months from its previous high of $3.65, sliding recently to around $1.09 to $1.11.

Another crypto commentator, Digital Outlook, said the current XRP correction resembles the 2020 selloff that came right after the SEC lawsuit against Ripple. He said he bought large amounts of XRP just before the lawsuit announcement, after which the price fell to $0.17 and then climbed to $1.97 four months later. The rise from the low exceeded 1,000 percent.

XRP did fall to about $0.1748 after the SEC filed its lawsuit against Ripple in December 2020. It later rebounded to about $1.96 in the April 2021 bull market. That is why some XRP supporters see this decline as an accumulation phase rather than a sign of failure.

The recent drop has also been steep. XRP fell 13.68 percent over the past 7 days, 23 percent over the past month and 41 percent since the start of the year. Compared with the cycle high of $3.65, the decline exceeds 70 percent. Over the same period, bitcoin slipped from above $70,000 a week earlier to around $62,900 in this correction phase. Bitcoin has fallen 34 percent since the start of the year, 25 percent over the past month and 14.46 percent over the past 7 days.

A theoretical upside scenario was also mentioned. Digital Outlook did not present a specific price target, but if XRP were to repeat the same 1,200 percent rise from the recent low of $1.09, a simple calculation would put it at around $14. Still, that figure merely applies past returns and does not guarantee future price moves.

Some in the market voiced caution. An X user, Mohamed Zoro (모하메드 조로), said past patterns do not necessarily predict the future. Another user, Virachocha (비라초차), also said conditions are not the same as they were 9 years ago.

During XRP's surge in late 2024, overall investor sentiment improved as news of former SEC Chair Gary Gensler's resignation coincided with the election of U.S. President Donald Trump, described as pro-crypto. Now, by contrast, bitcoin weakness and risk-off sentiment persist, raising doubts about whether the same pattern will be repeated, the report said.

A figure in the XRP community, Vet (벳), advised investors to focus on long-term development and learning rather than short-term prices. He said a bearish market phase could be an opportunity to learn and build within the ecosystem, adding that XRP and the digital asset industry have endured repeated downturns and repeated claims the industry is over.

Vet also told investors tired of volatility to step away from the charts for a while. If market moves feel burdensome, he suggested taking a break and returning with a longer time horizon.

The core of the debate is not the sharp drop in XRP itself, but whether past rebound patterns remain valid in the current market. Expectations for a rebound are being raised based on the falling wedge and the 2020 selloff case, but the current market faces a different macro environment and investor sentiment than in the past. As a result, for XRP to show a strong recovery like before, it will likely need more than chart similarities, along with signs of a broader return of risk appetite and the recapture of key support levels.