Recent weakness in bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market is the result of several overlapping burdens rather than a single negative factor, an analysis said. CoinPost, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Sunday that Greg Cipolaro (그레그 치폴라로), global head of research at U.S. digital asset manager NYDIG, laid out five headwinds pressuring the market in a weekly report dated June 5.

Cipolaro cited competition for funding with the AI sector as the first factor. Over the past 18 months, AI has emerged as the focus of equity markets, venture investment and corporate spending, drawing investor money that overlaps with crypto, he said.

The possibility of major initial public offerings was also flagged as a variable that could pressure liquidity. With expectations rising for listings by large private companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic, Databricks and Anduril, institutional investors may trim existing positions to raise funds to participate, the analysis said.

Remarks by the U.S. government about seizing Iran-related crypto assets were also cited as a burden. The analysis said concern grew about the visibility and control of government wallets after reports that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he had seized about $1 billion worth of Iran-related crypto assets. It noted, however, that the market still lacks a basis to judge the claim because details have not been disclosed.

A shift in Strategy’s role was also presented as a psychological burden. Strategy said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission last week that it sold 32 BTC. The amount is small, but the analysis said it could have a large impact on market sentiment because the company had been a consistent buyer since 2020 and has now turned into a seller.

Quantum-computing risk was also raised again. Google researchers sharply lowered estimates of the computing resources needed to crack elliptic-curve cryptography, and a French cryptography researcher disclosed a circuit structure that can implement similar performance characteristics. The analysis said it is not yet a practical threat, but the perception that the gap between theoretical vulnerability and real-world feasibility is narrowing is adding uncertainty.

On-chain indicators broadly aligned with the view that the current phase is consistent with a correction. Bitcoin’s decline from its peak was 52.7 percent, shallower than 77.6 percent in the 2021 to 2022 cycle and 84 to 94 percent in the first three cycles. The MVRV ratio was 1.2 times, PSIP was 49 percent, LTH-SOPR was 0.95 and aSOPR was near 1.0.

Those indicators suggested that the unwinding of speculative excess positioning has progressed substantially. It said, however, that a full capitulation signal seen at past major lows has not yet been confirmed.