On-chain analysis suggests bitcoin’s bear-market bottom has not yet been confirmed.

Cointelegraph reported on June 7 that realised losses in bitcoin’s bear market this year are below the 2022 record, raising the possibility that another capitulation phase may still lie ahead.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost said on-chain data indicate investor capitulation has not yet been as strong as in the 2022 bear market. Realised losses refer to cases where coins move on-chain at prices below their previous transaction price. The metric indicates investors locking in losses and selling.

In the 2022 bear market, bitcoin realised losses rose to as much as $211 billion, marking a peak at the time. In this cycle, only about $174 billion in losses has been realised from the October 2025 high to the present. That means losses have not matched the previous record even though bitcoin’s dollar-denominated market capitalisation is larger than in the past.

Darkfost noted that realised losses are calculated in U.S. dollars. He said that as market capitalisation keeps rising, it would be natural for bear-market losses to grow as well if similar investment behaviour repeats. Based on that trend, he said more stop-loss selling could still emerge, but added the view could be subjective.

Market participants’ behaviour is also different from past bear markets, another analysis said. Cryptocurrency trader Ardi said retail investors are buying the lows during declines, while mid-sized participants and institutions are selling into rebounds.

"Retail investors have been eager to buy every time the market dips over the past few months," he said. "On the other hand, mid-sized participants and institutions are offloading holdings during rebound phases." He also said retail investors’ conviction is unusually high.

That trend supports the view that it is difficult to conclude the current price range is the bear-market low. "Until this structure changes, it is hard to see the current bitcoin price low as the final bottom of the bear market," Ardi said.

As a result, markets are expected to focus on whether realised losses actually expand further and whether the supply-demand structure of retail buying and institutional selling changes. The analysis said bear-market bottom signals could gain weight only if both on-chain loss levels and trading patterns by participant type shift together.

For now, the interpretation that it is difficult to say the bitcoin market has passed through a clear capitulation phase is gaining traction. Realised losses have fallen short of past bear-market levels, while retail dip-buying and selling by mid- to large-scale investors are moving in opposite directions. For bitcoin prices to confirm a bear-market bottom, whether realised losses expand and whether flows among key investor groups shift are expected to be crucial variables.

In this chart, I have cumulated the realized losses during bear market periods. Realized losses are calculated in USD, so logic would dictate that with similar behavior, USD losses during bear markets should be increasingly significant given that market capitalization keeps… pic.twitter.com/EBsrd3X9Y8