[DigitalToday reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has slid to around $1.15, raising concerns that the downtrend could persist. But on-chain data and institutional fund flows are instead showing signs of accumulation.

On June 4 (local time), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that some in the market see the recent drop as a "bear trap" rather than a structural breakdown.

XRP has fallen about 66 percent to around $1.15 in early June 2026 from a peak of $3.65 in July 2025. XRP, which was $1.33 at the end of May, slipped to $1.29 on June 1 and $1.21 on June 2, then fell to the $1.15 range on June 5. It has dropped about 11 percent in less than a week, and its market value has shrunk by more than $8 billion.

But apart from selling pressure, large holders and institutional positions showed a different trend. Over the same period, more than 25 million XRP moved off exchanges, and whale wallets holding at least 10,000 XRP hit a record 332,230. More than 2 billion XRP has also been moved to cold wallets since October 2025. That suggests long-term holdings did not leave even as the market tilted toward fear.

Institutional money also stayed on an inflow trend. Spot XRP exchange-traded funds pulled in $131.94 million in May 2026, the largest monthly amount this year. Analysts said that in a prolonged downtrend, even conviction investors and institutions often sell together, but they do not see that playing out in XRP now.

Derivatives market structure was also cited as a factor that could lift the chance of a rebound. Short positions currently outnumber long positions by about 9 to 1. With many participants betting in the same direction, any positive catalyst could trigger a wave of short covering that pushes prices higher.

Technical indicators also pointed to oversold conditions. XRP's relative strength index fell to 27.55, and the stochastic oscillator also entered deep oversold territory.

A key support level is $1.20. XRP has tested the $1.00 to $1.20 range several times, but it has not yet posted a clear daily or weekly close below that band. If it breaks below $1.20 on strong volume, $1.00 and $0.90 are cited as the next downside levels. Crypto Patel viewed $1.10 to $1.30 as a key accumulation zone, but said a break could open the way to $0.65 to $0.85.

Despite price weakness, expansion in the XRP ecosystem has continued. The tokenised real-world asset market on the XRP Ledger, or XRPL, grew to $3.5 billion in early June from $991 million in early 2026. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange launched a 24-hour XRP futures market in June, and Ripple expanded institutional partnerships in 2026. In Washington, D.C., it broadened policy responses in line with crypto legislative discussions and ran a U.S. Treasury tokenisation pilot on the XRP Ledger with JPMorgan, Mastercard and Ondo Finance. The market value of the RLUSD stablecoin reached $1.8 billion after an Ethereum layer-2 expansion.

The biggest variable ahead is U.S. regulation. The Clarity Act, which passed the Senate Banking Committee with bipartisan support in May, is being discussed as possibly coming to a Senate vote before the August recess. If the bill passes, it could open a path to classifying XRP as a digital commodity rather than a security. Standard Chartered's Geoffrey Kendrick maintained a year-end XRP target of $8 on the assumption of the bill's passage and expanding ETF inflows.

In the near term, the price could also stay range-bound through the end of June. In the options market, $1.40 was cited as a key price level for June expiry. It was also suggested that XRP could remain in a $1.20 to $1.46 range in June.

Ultimately, the market is watching whether $1.20 holds, along with regulatory catalysts and whether the short-position crowding turns into an actual short squeeze. Whether the recent decline ends as a bear trap or becomes the start of a further slide could become clearer over the next 3 to 4 weeks.

First Accumulation Zone On $XRP Delivered 835% Now The 2W Chart Is Showing A Second Opportunity After A -66% Pullback. XRP Dropped to 15-Week Low Near $1.2677 Current Accumulation: $1.30-$1.10 (Add Small Qty Here) If This Support Breaks... $0.85-$0.65 Could Be THE Generational… pic.twitter.com/QEE48WghM8