Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net outflows of $2.3 billion in May, the biggest monthly withdrawal so far this year. Bitcoin was trading at $73,469 ahead of June. As institutions, whales and long-term holders cut their share, downside pressure increased, blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported on May 29.

The May outflows reversed net inflows seen in March and April. Net inflows were $1.32 billion in March and $1.97 billion in April. The May outflows were the largest in 2026 and the biggest since November 2025. Bitcoin fell 3.69 percent in May, but the outflows were about 10 times February's $206 million. Cumulative net inflows also fell to $55.79 billion from $58.09 billion in April.

The trend also runs counter to typical June seasonality. Over the past 12 years, bitcoin's median June return was 2.58 percent, and it fell in only five years.

The chart structure is also a burden. After falling 38.63 percent from its Jan. 13 peak, bitcoin has moved within a rising channel on a three-day candlestick basis since Feb. 6. A rising channel formed after a sharp drop is typically interpreted as an extension pattern of a downtrend rather than a bullish signal. Bitcoin tried to break above the upper band in early May, but it was blocked by resistance and fell back again.

Technically, it is already trading below the 20-period and 50-period exponential moving averages. The likelihood has also increased of a crossover between the 100-period and 200-period exponential moving averages on a three-day basis. If buying fails to defend the price, the lower band of the channel could be the next test.

On-chain indicators showed a similar trend. Based on Glassnode data, the number of bitcoin whales holding at least 1,000 BTC fell to 1,279 on May 28 from 1,285 on May 22. That implies at least 6,000 BTC came to market in about a week. At current prices, that is worth about $440 million. Hodler net position change, which shows net buying and net selling for addresses holding for at least 155 days, also fell 7.69 percent to 39,049 BTC on May 28 from 42,301 BTC on May 24.

Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬) said there is still room for a bottom in the bitcoin cycle. He suggested the possibility of a new low in 2026 and cited October as the base scenario.

The key June price level is $73,869. If bitcoin regains that price on a three-day closing basis, it could ease the bearish setup and try $77,877 and then $82,785. If it fails to reclaim $73,869, the next support is cited as $70,342, the lower band of the rising channel. If that area breaks, it opens the possibility of declines to $68,348, then $63,886 and $59,424.

With institutional outflows, selling by large holders and a pullback by long-term holders occurring at the same time, bitcoin's June direction is expected to depend more on whether it can defend key price levels on the chart.