An analysis has emerged that Bitcoin's four-year cycle remains valid and the next cyclical bottom could form in October 2026.

On May 27 (local time), blockchain outlet BeInCrypto reported that cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen (벤저민 코웬) said in a recent video that this cycle has not deviated much from past patterns.

Cowen said the timing of this cycle's peak closely matched the past. He explained that the peaks in the previous two cycles came 1,059 days and 1,168 days after the prior bottoms, while this cycle's peak formed on day 1,162.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $75,650. That is about 40 percent below the $126,080 recorded on Oct. 6.

Cowen also rejected claims that spot ETFs, corporate treasury demand and a Bitcoin reserve-asset narrative have broken the existing four-year cycle. He said similar narratives existed in previous cycles, but were ultimately followed by bear markets.

He also said the possibility of a bear market remains even in response to the argument that the peak formed amid indifference rather than overheating as in the past. Citing the S&P 500 trend from 1962 to 1982, he said a bear market can appear even after a peak that does not take the form of a clear surge top.

He also assessed that the strength of the current rebound is weaker than in the past. He said this countertrend rebound was weaker than the 46 percent rebound seen after the 2022 bottom, and noted that the recent 16-week advance falls within the 15 to 25-week range seen in past recovery phases during midterm election years.

Cowen acknowledged his outlook could be wrong. Still, he expected that even if a more gradual path emerges, Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 level this year, and that a meaningful bull market would resume only after that retest.

His base scenario is a bottom in October 2026. Cowen said the burden of proving claims that this cycle is different from the past lies with bulls.