Bitcoin is forming a long-term cup-and-handle pattern on the weekly chart, with a mid- to long-term target price of at least $220,000. For the scenario to remain valid, it must first hold the $74,000 support area.

Cointelegraph reported on May 26 local time that bitcoin rebounded about 30 percent after bottoming below $60,000 in early February. The market is watching whether the move extends a bullish pattern built over years rather than a short-term bounce. The cup-and-handle is classified as a bullish continuation pattern in which a rounded bottom recovery is followed by a brief consolidation and then a breakout above resistance.

Analyst Crypto Ties said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that bitcoin had just completed a cup-and-handle pattern built over years. He said the retest of the $65,000 to $74,000 neckline was over and that the breakout is completed only if the market holds that area.

Based on TradingView data, the pattern target leaves room up to $295,000. Some market participants also cite $220,000 as a more conservative upper level. The key is whether the neckline that turned into a support zone after the breakout is actually defended.

In the short term, $74,000 was presented as the dividing line. Trader Bella Crypto pointed out that BTC/USD must hold that level to maintain a bullish outlook. If it drops below that zone, sellers could regain control and the mid-term bullish scenario for bitcoin could be invalidated.

Trading volume is a burden factor. CryptoQuant data show bitcoin spot trading volume has fallen to levels mainly observed during bear markets. Binance spot volume fell 81 percent to $36.4 billion from $198.6 billion recorded in October 2025. Gate.io is down 79.6 percent and Bybit is down 66 percent.

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost saw the change as largely reflecting a macro environment unfavorable to risk assets. He added that the contraction in trading can also be interpreted as a sign that selling pressure in the current correction phase is gradually weakening.

Spot bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) outflows are also a variable the market is watching. It was also mentioned that there have been cases recently in which large outflows coincided with buying opportunities for bitcoin. The points to watch are whether $74,000 holds, whether spot trading volume recovers, and whether ETF fund flows can support the bullish pattern at the same time.

The current market environment is far from a typical bull market. Bitcoin has rebounded from its low, but spot trading volume has fallen sharply, and investors are reacting more sensitively to whether key support lines hold than to chasing gains. Even if the cup-and-handle pattern suggests mid- to long-term upside, in a bear market a breakout signal can fail or take a long time to reach the target price, leaving an overhang.

In particular, targets above $220,000 are closer to a mid- to long-term scenario calculated from the pattern than a short-term price outlook. While the bear market continues, the $74,000 support and a recovery in volume must be confirmed first. If those conditions are not met, the market could again test downside liquidity.

I'M SORRY BUT BITCOIN JUST COMPLETED A PATTERN THAT TAKES YEARS TO BUILD. And almost nobody noticed. Multi-year Cup and Handle. Complete. Breakout. DONE. Perfect retest. DONE. Structure confirmed. DONE. Cup and Handle breakouts don't move 20%. They move hundreds of percent.… pic.twitter.com/52PZnP8DTo