Dogecoin has entered a turning point that could determine its near-term direction after losing ground toward a key support zone at $0.1020.

According to blockchain media outlet The Crypto Basic on May 25, market analyst Ali Martinez said Dogecoin is being tested at a price area that is the middle of a parallel channel and overlaps with the 50-day simple moving average (SMA).

Dogecoin has extended losses amid broader market uncertainty. It posted its second straight weekly decline last week and fell more than 6 percent over the week. During that period, Dogecoin slipped out of the top 10 by market capitalisation as the market value of decentralised exchange (DEX) derivatives token Hyperliquid (HYPE) expanded.

The key in the price action is a failed breakout above upper resistance. Dogecoin climbed to resistance at $0.1156 last week and hit a weekly high of $0.1186. It also rose to $0.1170 two weeks ago to test the same area, but selling pressure held it back both times. The $0.1156 level marks the top of a horizontal price range on the daily chart and coincides with the top of the parallel channel that has guided Dogecoin's recent price action.

After pulling back from the top, the price retraced to around $0.1020. That area overlaps with the channel midpoint and also hosts the 50-day SMA, and is cited as a decisive zone where buyers and sellers clash. Martinez said that as long as support at $0.1020 holds, the price could rebound toward the upper channel resistance near $0.1156.

A warning also emerged that losses could deepen toward the lower support line if that area breaks. Martinez said that if Dogecoin clearly loses the $0.1020 support zone, the channel bottom at $0.0883 could become the next target. Based on the current market price of $0.1030, that implies about 14 percent more downside to the lower boundary.

It was also noted that the chart structure itself has not fully broken down. Despite the recent decline, Dogecoin is still moving within a broader channel and higher lows are being maintained in the sequence of highs and lows on the chart. That means the medium-term structure has not yet been damaged even as the near-term trend is weak.

Market participants are putting more weight on waiting. Dogecoin has been seen as a token that reacts sensitively to moves in bitcoin and major cryptocurrencies, and it has recently posted bigger declines when large-cap coins edged lower. Spot trading volume fell 35 percent over 24 hours to $515 million as a result.

Interest in the derivatives market increased instead. Open interest rose 2.17 percent over the same period to $1.33 billion. While the spot market stepped back, the derivatives market showed a trend of betting on the possibility of the next increase in volatility. That has put the focus on whether Dogecoin can hold the $0.1020 support level in the near term or breaks below it and heads toward the channel bottom as the key factor that will determine the market's next direction.

This is a major support level for Dogecoin $DOGE. Following a touch of the upper channel boundary, DOGE has retraced to $0.1020. This specific area is significant because it represents the mid-level of its multi-week channel and the exact location of the 50-day SMA. This… https://t.co/u6UNRDhQeX pic.twitter.com/4JaAWroigs