Market assessments of Tesla's long-term investment value are diverging again. Vehicle sales growth has slowed, but expectations for expanded self-driving, artificial intelligence (AI) and energy businesses are still supporting a high corporate value, an analysis says.

On May 18 (all times local), blockchain outlet The Crypto Basic reported that Tesla closed on May 15 at $422.24 a share, with a market value of about $1.59 trillion. It also raised the view that the stock is supported more by expectations for future businesses than by current performance.

The central debate is the high valuation. Tesla's price-to-earnings ratio is about 390 to 406, high compared with traditional automakers and even major technology companies. Annual revenue in 2025 was about $94.8 billion, and vehicle deliveries fell 8.6 percent from a year earlier to about 1.64 million. That suggests signs of slowing growth if the auto business is viewed on its own.

First-quarter results this year showed some recovery. Tesla delivered 358,023 vehicles and produced 408,386 in the first quarter. Revenue rose 16 percent from a year earlier to $22.39 billion, and net profit increased 17 percent to $477 million. Non-GAAP earnings per share were $0.41.

The energy business in particular is emerging as a growth pillar. Tesla deployed 8.8 gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage in the first quarter, a quarterly record. On an annual basis, it supplied a total of 46.7 GWh in 2025. The market is watching the possibility that the energy business could take a larger share if Megapack production expansion ramps up in earnest.

Concerns about weakening vehicle demand persist. Production exceeded deliveries by about 50,000 vehicles, pushing inventories up to about 27 days. The market interprets this as a signal that pressure on EV demand is emerging in some regions.

For that reason, the market holds opposing views on Tesla. One side sees it as an EV manufacturer facing intensifying competition and slowing growth, while the other views it as a platform company combining self-driving, AI and energy infrastructure.

Software and AI businesses are a key support for long-term investment expectations. Fully Self-Driving (FSD) users have surpassed 1 million based on some estimates, and paid subscribers have been put at about 1.1 million to 1.3 million. Tesla also cites its vast driving data as a strength. About 3.8 billion miles of urban driving data and a large volume of self-driving training data have accumulated, which is cited as a competitive edge.

Expectations for expanding new businesses are also continuing. Tesla plans to introduce robotaxi services in at least 9 cities in 2026, and the possibility has been raised for limited production of its humanoid robot Optimus. Bulls assess Tesla not as a simple carmaker but as a "physical AI platform."

But Wall Street remains cautious. Average investment views on major financial platforms generally remain at "hold," and 12-month target prices are also clustered at $395 to $413, similar to or slightly below the current share price.

Dan Ives (댄 아이브스) of Wedbush Securities is cited as a representative bull. He forecast 2026 as Tesla's "breakout year" and presented a $600 target price. Stifel also put forward a $508 target price alongside a buy rating, citing robotaxi expansion, FSD improvements and Optimus production plans.

Sceptical views are also strong. GLJ Research presented a $24.86 target price with a sell rating, and JPMorgan also maintained a $145 target price and an underweight rating. It cited concerns about rising capital expenditure, slowing EV demand and uncertainty over monetising the self-driving business.

The share price also shows both high expectations and volatility. Tesla traded at $17 a share at its 2010 listing, or about $1.27 on a stock-split-adjusted basis. It later climbed to $414 in November 2021, fell to $101 in January 2023, and then hit an all-time high of $488 in December 2024. This year it fell 18.8 percent from January to March, dropping below $400, but rebounded 2.66 percent in April and more than 10 percent so far in May. Even so, it is about 6 percent lower than at the start of the year and about 13 percent below its peak.

In the end, Tesla's long-term investment value depends more on future execution than on current auto performance. If the robotaxi launch, Optimus development and energy business expansion proceed as planned, the current corporate value could be justified. If it falls short of expectations, the high valuation could become a burden. The answer to whether Tesla is a long-term investment hinges on whether it can translate its shift into a technology and energy company into actual results, an analysis says.