AI chip design company Cerebras Systems jumped about 70 percent on its first day of trading, showing the strongest presence in the U.S. tech IPO market this year. The market is assessing that AI is starting to pull money back into the previously frozen tech IPO market, while also raising analysis that capital concentration is worsening.

CNBC reported on May 16 local time that Cerebras Systems' surge on its first trading day pushed its market capitalisation to about $95 billion. That was the largest U.S. IPO this year and the biggest listing among U.S. tech companies since ride-hailing company Uber in 2019.

The strong debut is being seen as quickly changing the mood in the slumped tech IPO market. Since 2022, risk-asset appetite has weakened as inflation and interest rates rose, leaving the U.S. tech IPO market effectively frozen. The National Venture Capital Association said the scale of U.S. venture investment exits last year was less than one-third of the 2021 peak.

In that environment, Cerebras has emerged as a rare "pure AI" investment target. Strength in the semiconductor sector is also cited as a factor behind the strong demand. Shares of major chip companies such as Intel, AMD and Micron have been rising together, as chip demand is surging across AI infrastructure.

Cerebras claims its Wafer-Scale Engine 3 (WSE-3) chip operates faster than Nvidia graphics processing units. It also signed a $20 billion contract with OpenAI early this year and struck a cooperation deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The market is also assessing that the listing's success is not simply a short-term supply-demand effect.

Still, there is also criticism that the AI boom is not reviving the entire tech IPO market. Among companies waiting to list, the most watched are mega-sized AI companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic.

All of them are being valued at around $1 trillion or more, and there is talk that SpaceX could file a registration statement as early as next week. OpenAI and Anthropic are also known to be reviewing IPOs within this year.

Sam Lessin (샘 레신), a partner at Slow Ventures, assessed the current market mood by saying, "It is hard to attract interest unless it is a $3 trillion-class IPO that could come out within the next year." That implies expectations for mega AI listings are lifting the overall market while weakening the presence of other companies.

Analysis also points to growing pressure on software service companies not directly linked to AI. Jai Das (자이 다스), a partner at Sapphire Ventures, described the current IPO market as "a story of haves and have-nots."

He pointed out that companies with a strong AI narrative can enter the market, but existing software-as-a-service (SaaS) companies with a weak AI angle are struggling to draw attention in public offerings.

Another factor cited is that public market investors are starting to think some existing software products could be replaced by AI models and AI agents.

Late-stage startups are also adjusting their listing timing while watching the market. Lise Buyer (라이즈 바이어), founder of IPO advisory firm Class V Group, assessed, "Companies are still at the stage of checking whether the market has really opened." Rick Heitzmann (릭 하이츠만), a partner at FirstMark, also said, "Companies preparing to go public want to see who jumps in first and whether the market actually accepts it."

SpaceX is being cited as the next biggest variable. Elon Musk merged SpaceX and AI startup xAI in February at a valuation of about $1.25 trillion. If SpaceX lists at that valuation, there is talk it could immediately enter the top 10 U.S. tech companies by market capitalisation.

Lenos Savides (레노스 사비데스) of Neuberger Berman said, "Nobody wants to be in the blast radius of SpaceX," and forecast that if a mega IPO emerges, it could become even harder for small and mid-sized tech IPOs to attract investor attention.

The market is assessing that Cerebras' strong debut lifted expectations for a recovery in the tech IPO market, while also showing an extreme AI-led concentration of capital. Analysts say the IPO market is increasingly likely to move around mega-sized companies with an AI narrative.