Claims have spread online that Costco has recently issued a fresh recession warning, but the widely circulated remark was confirmed to be a past comment from a 2023 earnings release.

According to blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto on May 17 local time, the disputed content concerned changes in consumer spending patterns mentioned by Richard Galanti (리처드 갈란티), who was then chief financial officer, during a May 3, 2023 third-quarter earnings call.

Galanti said at the time that consumers were shifting to cheaper proteins than beef. He cited items such as canned chicken and tuna. He said the trend resembled patterns seen during economic slowdowns in 1999, 2000, and from 2008 to 2010.

Still, treating the remark as if it were a recent official warning from Costco is far from the truth. Galanti left the company in March 2024 after about 40 years there, and Gary Millerchip (게리 밀러칩) has since taken over as CFO. No similar warning appeared in recent earnings calls led by Millerchip.

Costco executives said in earnings calls for the first and second quarters of fiscal 2026 that member spending was generally consistent. They also said growth in more expensive cuts of meat was stronger than for cheaper proteins. That runs counter to a narrative spreading on social media that consumers are cutting back on premium goods and shifting to lower-priced items.

Still, a surge in U.S. beef prices has helped bring the old remarks back into focus. U.S. beef prices have risen to record highs. In March 2026, the average price of ground beef was about $6.7 per pound, and live cattle traded at around $2.58 per pound in the same month.

The reasons behind the price increases are also clear. The U.S. cattle herd has fallen to the lowest level in 75 years due to prolonged drought and higher feed costs. In addition, President Donald Trump delayed implementing an executive order this month that would ease restrictions on beef imports to lower prices. With U.S. consumers still feeling the burden of food inflation, past Costco remarks have been taken as if they were a current economic signal.

That is not the only indicator that has stoked concerns about a U.S. slowdown. U.S. corrugated box production fell by more than 8 percent in the first quarter of 2026. Similar declines have appeared ahead of past U.S. recessions. Goldman Sachs raised the probability of a U.S. recession over the next 12 months to 30 percent in March, citing an oil shock and tighter financial conditions.

Prediction market Polymarket priced in about a 23 percent chance the United States enters a recession by the end of the year. Still, that reading is lower than the panic levels seen earlier this year.

The core of the controversy, ultimately, is not whether Costco issued a new warning, but that 2023 remarks spread again as they intersected with 2026 inflation conditions. In Costco's recent earnings calls, member spending was relatively stable, and sales of higher-priced meat rose faster than cheaper proteins. With food-price uncertainty and worries about an economic slowdown growing in the United States, a single past comment has served as an example of how current market sentiment can be stirred.