[Digital Today reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] The possibility that the scale of layoffs in the U.S. technology industry in 2026 will be larger than in 2025 was reflected at 67 percent.

According to blockchain outlet BeInCrypto on May 14 local time, betting is pouring into the prediction market Polymarket on the possibility of broader restructuring across the technology industry, triggered by Meta’s internal morale decline and plans for large-scale job cuts.

The contract will determine the outcome through June 2027 based on U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment data for the information sector. Market participants currently set the probability that 2026 layoffs will end as an "increase" at 67 percent. Trading ends on Feb. 28, 2027.

Meta’s layoff plan is cited as a direct factor driving market unease. Meta plans to eliminate about 8,000 jobs on May 20, which is about 10 percent of its global workforce. It will also freeze hiring for 6,000 open positions.

The mood inside Meta is already badly shaken. According to Blind posts and Wired reporting, employees described the corporate culture as "dead and depressing." Employees see performance evaluations tied to artificial intelligence output and the May 20 layoffs as adding pressure.

Reaction on the ground is also harsh. An Instagram employee said of the current atmosphere, "Everyone is unhappy. Literally the only people who aren't unhappy are executives." The perception is spreading across multiple teams rather than a single organization, showing internal unrest.

Meta executives are emphasizing the need for cost efficiency. Chief human resources officer Janelle Gale (자넬 게일) explained it as a decision to operate the company more efficiently as AI infrastructure spending grows. Meta posted first-quarter revenue of $56.3 billion, up 33 percent from a year earlier, but its stock fell about 10 percent after it raised its 2026 capital expenditure guidance to $145.0 billion from $125.0 billion.

The conflict did not stop at layoffs. On May 12, employees distributed leaflets opposing the "Model Capability Initiative" tool that records keystrokes, clicks and on-screen activity for use in training AI agents. The AI transition has brought both productivity management and privacy concerns to the surface.

Polymarket participants do not see the trend as only Meta’s problem. The market also reflects 2026 layoff cases at LinkedIn, Cisco, Cloudflare, Coinbase and Oracle. It reflects a view that employment anxiety is spreading across the industry as large technology companies pursue both expanded AI investment and organizational reshuffles. Key variables remain whether increased AI investment will lead to further layoffs and what constraints internal pushback and privacy controversies will place on how companies operate.