[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] If the European Union eases its car carbon-emissions targets, electric vehicle production in Europe in 2030 could fall to about half current forecasts, potentially wiping out industrial opportunities equal to 34 Northvolt-sized battery plants, an analysis showed.

CleanTechnica, an electric vehicle outlet, reported on May 12 that Transport & Environment warned that weakening EU car CO2 rules could impose major costs across battery production capacity, jobs and the bloc’s energy import structure.

The analysis compared three scenarios: current EU rules, a European Commission proposal to ease them, and demands from the auto industry. The key is how loosely the 2030 and 2035 targets are applied. If the 2030 target is calculated as a 5-year average, as the auto industry wants, Europe’s battery electric vehicle production in 2030 could fall to 3.7 million vehicles. T&E said that would be about half the current forecast. If the 2035 emissions target is weakened, it estimated the battery electric vehicle production outlook could fall 46 percent.

The battery industry is also expected to take a big hit. Lowering electric vehicle targets would weaken the demand base for batteries within the bloc, even as the EU pushes measures to foster the battery industry. T&E said potential battery production capacity in 2030 could drop by more than two-thirds, equivalent to losing 34 Northvolt-sized plants. Up to 47,000 jobs could be affected.

The cathode material sector, a key battery supply-chain material, is also expected to be hit. If strong CO2 rules are maintained, cathode material production in Europe could meet more than two-thirds of demand by 2030. But if industry demands are reflected, the number of projects that could realistically be delivered would be limited to 5, meeting only about 10 percent of expected 2030 demand.

Julia Poliscanova, T&E’s senior director for vehicles and e-mobility supply chains, said, "Electric vehicles have become the growth engine of the global auto industry." She said the EU could lead the clean technology industrial base if it anchors electric vehicle production within the bloc, but warned that weakening CO2 targets would leave China ahead and risk Europe losing its battery and electric vehicle industries.

A slower rollout of electric vehicles would also raise the burden of energy imports. T&E said weaker targets that curb electric vehicle adoption could increase the EU’s additional oil import costs by 50 billion euros in 2026-2035. By contrast, if the domestic electric vehicle market becomes large enough, dependence on battery imports could fall to about 7 percent, helped by expanded production and increased recycling.

EU lawmakers are currently debating whether to ease car CO2 targets. T&E urged members of the European Parliament and member-state governments not to accept any weakening of the 2030 target, and stressed that the 2035 zero-emission vehicle target and strong domestic production requirements are needed to build Europe’s battery industry. The debate is emerging as a key variable that will shape vehicle production and battery investment, rather than a simple adjustment of environmental regulation.