An analysis said retail investors’ unsold holdings are underpinning XRP’s downside support, accounting for about 40 to 60 percent.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on April 27 local time that XRP community figure and musician MC Solar Wind (MC 솔라 윈드) assessed retail investors as playing a significant role in supporting the price floor in the current XRP market.

He first cited the distribution structure. About 15 to 20 percent of total supply is on exchanges, and much of that is retail deposits. On-chain data put XRP held by exchanges at about 16 billion tokens, about 26 percent of the circulating supply of 61.68 billion.

He also said institutional inflows are still limited. Six exchange-traded fund (ETF) products held XRP worth about $1.1 billion, just about 1.2 percent of total market capitalisation. MC Solar Wind said ETF exposure is only about 1 percent of total supply and that these products still have a large share of non-institutional participants.

Wallet distribution was also cited as an indicator supporting retail influence. The XRP Ledger has about 7.8 million active wallets, and about 6.4 million of them, or 82 percent, hold 500 XRP or less. With tokens moved to self-custody and an increase in long-term holders, a structure is forming that reduces downside pressure even if it does not directly push prices higher, he said.

MC Solar Wind said retail support comes from the “choice not to sell” rather than “continuous buying.” If many holders delay selling, fewer tokens come to market and price stability increases, he said. He also described XRP as a market where “a strong base supply is locked up and the price moves on edge trading.”

He said short-term prices are still influenced by other players. Market makers, large investors and ETF inflows drive short-term fluctuations, and retail investors’ role is closer to supporting the floor than creating sharp rallies. That highlights a structure in which some liquid supply shakes prices while a significant share of supply does not move.

He also said XRP is at an intermediate stage between bitcoin and ether, and Solana and Binance Coin (BNB). Bitcoin and ether have shifted toward institution-led markets through ETFs, staking and corporate investment, while Solana and BNB are more influenced by retail activity such as decentralised finance (DeFi), meme coins and ecosystem use, he said. XRP still has a large retail holder base, but is in a “bridge stage” where institutional participation is gradually increasing.

He also said community narratives influenced long-term holding sentiment. He said “riddle-like” narratives within the community affected investors’ psychology. He said such interpretations and discourse functioned as cultural links that sustained interest and belief and also influenced whether holders kept their positions.

He said the key point to watch is whether institutional demand turns into actual usage demand. If large-scale adoption occurs in areas such as cross-border payments, liquidity demand and financial integration, XRP’s price will be determined by “real use, not belief,” MC Solar Wind said. For now, with a small ETF share and a high share of small wallets, XRP’s downside is likely to remain supported for some time by retail investors’ long-term holding tendency.

How much of XRP’s price right now is actually supported by retail conviction? When you break it down, XRP is in a very specific phase. ~15–20% of supply still sits on exchanges (largely retail deposits), ETFs are only ~1% of supply and skew heavily non-institutional, and there… pic.twitter.com/9QdvpxIAqp