[Digital Today reporter Yoonseo Lee (이윤서)] XRP has, technically, left room for an additional rise of around 16 percent, but on-chain indicators show selling pressure that could block a break above resistance.

On April 27 (local time), blockchain media outlet BeInCrypto reported that XRP is trying to rebound while forming a cup-and-handle pattern, but rising exchange inflows and a supply zone of 1.16 billion tokens were cited as near-term resistance factors.

XRP is testing the top of a falling channel that has persisted since April 17. It is holding around the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $1.40 and the 50-day EMA of $1.41. The chart shows a cup-and-handle pattern forming. The pattern is classified as a typical bullish continuation setup that attempts a breakout after a U-shaped recovery and a mild pullback.

Based on technical momentum alone, expectations for a rebound remain. XRP is holding above the two moving averages, and the narrowing gap between them has also raised the possibility of a golden cross. If a breakout above the top of the handle occurs alongside a golden cross, it would imply upside potential of 16.64 percent based on the measured move from the cup’s low to high.

On-chain indicators, however, are sending a different signal. A key metric is the change in exchange net position. It shows whether tokens are flowing into exchanges or moving out to external wallets. A positive reading means inflows to exchanges are dominant and is typically interpreted as a sign of rising selling pressure.

XRP’s exchange net position change surged to 55.29 million on April 26 from 4.56 million on April 24. That means the pace of inflows to exchanges accelerated for three consecutive days. The move raised the possibility of mounting selling pressure as holders transfer large amounts of XRP to exchanges.

There is also a tangible supply overhang above. According to Glassnode’s cost-basis distribution heatmap, about 1.16 billion XRP is concentrated in the $1.45 to $1.46 range. Wallets that bought at those levels were sitting on unrealised losses after the recent decline, and the incentive to sell at break-even rises if price re-enters that zone. The increase in exchange inflows shows that such positioning is already partly under way.

The key question is whether XRP can absorb major resistance zones. The first resistance line is $1.44, the 0.236 Fibonacci level. If a daily close forms above it, XRP would immediately enter a supply-dense zone shown in the cost-basis distribution. The next test is $1.48, the 0.382 Fibonacci level. Supply pressure could strengthen in that area.

The core pivot is $1.53. That price is the 0.618 Fibonacci level and the neckline of the cup pattern. If XRP posts a daily close above $1.53, the cup-and-handle pattern would be confirmed and the target price is presented as $1.77. If it falls below $1.39, the structure weakens and the $1.35 area could open. If it drops below $1.27, the cup pattern is invalidated.

Downside risk also remains. If it is pushed below $1.39, the current pattern weakens and the $1.35 area could open again. The line that invalidates the cup structure itself is a break below the low of $1.27. As a result, the market is watching whether XRP can break through the $1.48 to $1.53 zone and whether exchange inflows continue to expand as key variables.