As a mega initial public offering by space company SpaceX comes into view, observers say liquidity flows in the cryptocurrency market could also shift.

According to blockchain outlet CoinDesk on April 24, if large technology companies such as SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic list one after another, the risk-asset funding pool shared by stocks and cryptocurrencies could be reshaped.

SpaceX filed a confidential S-1 with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission earlier this month. Its target fundraising is $75 billion and its valuation is estimated at $1.75 trillion. If it lists in June as planned, it would be the largest IPO on record, far exceeding Saudi Aramco's 2019 IPO of $29 billion.

Polymarket traders put the probability of a June listing at 65 percent. They put the probability that its market capitalisation will exceed $2 trillion based on the first day's closing price at 53 percent.

The variables do not end with SpaceX. ChatGPT developer OpenAI is targeting a fourth-quarter listing at a valuation of around $1 trillion, while Anthropic is preparing to list in October and is seen as potentially raising more than $60 billion. If the three companies enter the market on schedule, as much as more than $240 billion could be absorbed by stock markets from June through year-end. PitchBook said that would exceed the total IPO funding based on U.S. venture investment since 2000.

The market sees such large IPOs as capable of directly affecting cryptocurrency markets. In the recent cycle, major cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin (BTC) and ether (ETH) have shown a high correlation with technology stocks such as the Nasdaq. If speculative funds move to subscribe to IPOs, some of the speculative money that would have flowed into cryptocurrencies could shift into equity markets.

Retail investor flows are cited as a key variable. About 30 percent of SpaceX's offering is expected to be allocated to retail investors, worth about $22 billion. That is about three times the level of a typical IPO, and if retail money moves in large amounts, demand for meme coins or altcoins could shrink in the short term.

Past cases are also being cited again. On the day Coinbase listed in April 2021, bitcoin hit a record high of about $64,800 and then fell about 50 percent in six weeks. At the time, there was also an interpretation that the big event served as a signal of a market peak.

There is also a direct link between this listing and crypto. SpaceX holds about 8,285 BTC, worth about $600 million, and it is expected to become a rare case among large listed companies to reflect bitcoin holdings under fair-value accounting standards.

A near-term focus is the May to June roadshow period. The market is likely to check whether cryptocurrencies hold up during that period, or tilt weaker as a reshuffling of funds begins for SpaceX subscriptions. Conversely, if bitcoin continues its upward trend during the roadshow, it could be read as a sign that buying via spot ETFs has become separated from broader risk-asset flows.

Some also say it is hard to see this event simply as a repeat of past cases. If Coinbase's listing was a single event, the current flow, including SpaceX, is a mega capital-absorption cycle that continues over several months. How the market digests it is expected to emerge in price movements over the coming weeks.