The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's workforce has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years after shrinking 24% since President Donald Trump returned, but the burden of monitoring cryptocurrencies, oil futures and prediction markets is growing, according to a report.

Blockchain outlet Cryptopolitan reported on Saturday that the CFTC's staff count fell to 535 as of February this year after layoffs, voluntary resignations and early retirements.

Fast-growing prediction markets in particular are adding to the regulatory burden. Prediction markets allow people to wager real money on a wide range of public events including government crackdowns, wars, elections, sports, celebrity-related incidents, Federal Reserve policy, court rulings and other developments. The need to monitor insider trading and market abuse has grown, but oversight staff have instead declined.

The workforce cuts took place under the leadership of Caroline Pham, who was nominated by President Joe Biden and later promoted to acting chair under the Trump administration. CFTC Chair Michael Selig said there would be no problem carrying out its work through efficiency measures and technology adoption even as the policy of reducing the federal workforce backed by Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) takes effect.

Inside the agency, however, concerns are being raised about weakened enforcement functions. A former senior CFTC official said the cuts were carried out illogically and that many experienced enforcement lawyers and trial staff were dismissed. Enforcement lawyers in the Chicago office reportedly fell from 20 to 0.

Staffing is likely to decline further. A proposed enforcement division budget submitted to Congress shows related staffing is expected to fall to 108, down about 23% from 140 in 2025.

The CFTC says it will use artificial intelligence to fill some gaps. The agency is using AI to review public comments related to prediction market rules, and staff are using Microsoft Copilot to draft memos, reports and presentation materials. It has also introduced software to process corporate approval applications. Applications for approval of prediction market exchanges have reportedly hit a record high recently.

But Congress is questioning whether these steps are sufficient. Representative Nikki Budzinski said she was concerned whether the CFTC can maintain the level of oversight taxpayers expect, and criticised the term "efficiency" as potentially meaning mass layoffs.

Politics is also highlighting conflict-of-interest issues. Budzinski introduced a bipartisan bill to bar the president and administration officials, members of Congress and their families from participating in prediction markets.

Trump Media & Technology Group has announced plans for its own prediction platform, and Donald Trump Jr is serving as a paid adviser to prediction market platform Kalshi and participating as a Polymarket investor.

Polymarket was allowed last year to offer services to U.S. customers but has not yet reached a fully operational stage. Kalshi refunded $2.2 million in connection with some disputed markets and is also facing lawsuits. It also sanctioned 3 congressional candidates who bet on their own elections on its platform.

Ultimately, prediction market exchanges must establish their own systems to prevent insider trading, and after CFTC approval, companies must directly certify that each market is complying with federal law. Even if Congress approves a $410 million budget and 650 full-time employees, the CFTC is expected to remain smaller than it was for most of Trump's first term.

The former senior official said the CFTC would be in a position of having to choose which cases to address, and warned some matters could fall into regulatory blind spots.