[DigitalToday reporter Jinju Hong (홍진주)] The U.S. Senate’s digital asset market structure bill, the CLARITY Act, is effectively not expected to be handled within April. Some see it as able to maintain legislative momentum if a Senate committee review is held in May. Still, the chances of passage within the year remain uncertain due to a packed congressional schedule and political variables.

According to blockchain media outlet CoinDesk on April 22 local time, Senate officials and lobbyists believe the bill needs to reach a Senate floor vote by July to keep a realistic chance of passing this year. A key variable is the schedule of the Senate Banking Committee. The bill must first clear that committee, then go through a process of reconciling language with the Agriculture Committee’s version, which has already advanced separately.

A main reason for the delay is a conflict of interests over the issue of stablecoin rewards. Republican Senator Tom Tillis (톰 틸리스) is continuing discussions with the banking sector, and the schedule is reportedly being pushed back further in the process. Senate aides say that even if there is another delay of several weeks, it has not yet reached an irrecoverable stage.

Among the earlier sticking points, provisions to protect decentralised finance, or DeFi, are said to have been largely settled. The overall text of the bill has not been fully finalised. Democrats in particular are seeking ethics language to prevent conflicts of interest in cryptocurrency by senior officials such as President Donald Trump. A Senate aide explained that related wording is being exchanged, but is unlikely to be included in the Banking Committee version and will probably be added at a later stage. There is also a view that Democrats could secure more votes only if demands are settled to appoint the full slate of commissioners to oversee market regulation.

The problem is time. With the Senate set to effectively enter an election phase after August, the period available to process legislative business before then is limited. Big issues such as the Department of Homeland Security budget, the Middle East situation, a voter identification bill and the confirmation of Kevin Warsh to the Federal Reserve are converging, making it difficult for crypto legislation to secure priority.

The House process is also a variable. Even if the Senate passes the bill, the House must reconcile differences with legislation it has already passed and vote again. Still, there is a view that if there are no major disagreements, the House reprocessing could move relatively quickly. President Trump’s signature at the final stage is expected to be comparatively easier, but uncertainty remains because Trump said in March he would not sign any bill unless legislation proving voter citizenship is handled first.

The stablecoin rewards issue, a core sticking point, remains at the stage of seeking a compromise. The current direction under discussion is to ban yield payments on products that have the nature of deposit insurance or function like deposits, while allowing companies such as Coinbase to design programmes with a structure closer to credit-card rewards, it is said. Banks are still strongly opposed, and conflicts of interest with the industry have not been fully resolved.

The industry believes there is not much time. Digital asset lobbying groups are warning that if committee markups are not held soon, the year’s legislative effort itself could collapse. Some analytical institutions, however, are maintaining a cautious stance, putting the chances of passage this year at "about half or lower."

Ultimately, the key will be setting a schedule for the Senate Banking Committee markup and whether detailed bill language that has not been made public for an extended period is released. If agreement is reached at this stage, the legislation could pick up speed. If clashes erupt again, it is likely to become difficult to process it within the year. Still, there is also an assessment that some room remains for a last chance at end-of-session meetings after the November midterm elections.