An analysis says XRP is again forming a structure that has appeared before strong gains in the past.

The Crypto Basic, a blockchain media outlet, reported on Tuesday that market analyst Chart Nerd raised the possibility that XRP could drop once more to a long-term rising trendline and then stage a sharp rebound.

The key is a long-term support-line pattern repeated since 2020. Chart Nerd said XRP has repeatedly formed a major peak, corrected back to a rising support trendline and then moved on to the next high. He said the market is now in a similar phase and put a potential bottom zone, based on the long-term trendline, at $0.70 to $0.90.

XRP entered a correction after rising to $3.60 in July 2025. Chart Nerd compared peaks at $3.31 in 2018, $1.96 in 2021 and $3.60 in 2025, saying each cycle’s top was eventually followed by a retest of the rising support line. He said XRP fell to $0.11 in March 2020, formed a double bottom and climbed to $1.96 in April 2021. He added that XRP formed another double bottom around $0.30 in June 2022 and January 2023 before moving to the 2025 high.

On a weekly basis, a break below the bull market support band was presented as an important variable. The band is made up of the 20-week simple moving average and the 21-week exponential moving average. He said XRP lost the band in October 2025 and turned it into resistance. XRP rebounded to $2.69 in late October 2025 and to $2.41 in early January 2026, but both attempts failed to break through. It then fell to $1.10 in early February 2026, a 50 percent correction.

XRP is now showing a tight consolidation in the $1.30 to $1.50 range. Chart Nerd said it could rebound in the short term to $1.60 to $1.70, and as high as $1.80 to $2.00. He warned that the broader downtrend remains in place as long as XRP stays below the resistance band.

In shorter time frames below the daily chart, it is converging between a falling resistance line and a rising support line. The peak point was expected in early May. A move higher is possible if XRP holds above $1.38 and major moving averages, but a downside break could push it down more quickly toward the projected cycle-bottom zone.

Chart Nerd said the current structure resembles the final bottom-forming phases seen in 2019 to 2020 and in 2022. He said the pattern has repeated in which support holds briefly after a peak, then breaks once more to form the final cycle low. He also noted that even if XRP rebounds to resistance around $1.82 after already losing rising support, it could still fall again.

He maintained a bullish long-term outlook. He assessed the current range as a multi-year accumulation structure unfolding below a major resistance level that has persisted for nearly 8 years. He also said it is similar to the period of sharp gains after a long-term resistance breakout between 2013 and 2017.

That leaves two key points to watch. In the short term, the defense of $1.38 and whether XRP can regain the bull market support band are important. In the long term, the key is a break above the prior high of $3.60. Chart Nerd said a strong rise is possible if XRP moves above $3.60 and enters price discovery, and he set a Fibonacci-based long-term target at $27. He added that this scenario may be conditioned on first forming a new cycle low and then retesting the long-term rising trendline.

This signal has fired for $XRP two times in the last 6 years, and both of those were at cycle lows. While fear is being priced in, are we about to be handed a "three is a charm" opportunity? My thoughts on XRP price action and the market. Enjoy XRP family pic twitter.com/Qx6MhRJqhZ